Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Keep that Air Wing at Kandahar (plus quite a bit of Army)

Matthew Fisher and Sheldon Alberts of Canwest News speculate on a post-2011 CF presence:
...
NATO has a critical shortage of transport helicopters in Afghanistan. As Canada has a cadre of freshly trained Chinook pilots flying recently refurbished choppers, there is no good reason for them not to stay in Kandahar beyond 2011. There has also not yet been too great a strain placed on Canada's born-again Leopard tank fleet or on its artillery. Both the tankers and gunners would be solid add-ons to whatever combat unit replaces the Canadians.

It is a given that after 2011, Canada will still keep a large, mostly infantry-backed complement of police and army trainers in Kandahar as well as a provincial reconstruction team that requires logisticians, engineers and civil affairs experts, as well as an infantry company for security.

Much depends, of course, on how the Afghan war goes over the next two years. However, whatever Mr. Harper and Mr. Obama say publicly this week, it is highly unlikely that all of Canada's combat forces will come home in 2011.
Similar in some ways to what Maj.-Gen. (ret'd) Lewis MacKenzie has been suggesting; I have been promoting a continuing Air Force mission. First mention of keeping tanks and artillery I've seen, and I do wonder how stretched these units personnel will be by 2011. And whether such a truly "bang bang" contingent would fly politically. What might Messrs Staples and Byers think of the ideas above?

As for "It is a given that after 2011..." there will be a significant ongoing Army presence, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has a rather different view (at least at this moment):
Canada must pull its troops out by 2011, says Ignatieff
But Liberal positions can change fairly readily, as demonstrated when they agreed to support the mission until 2011--despite what they had been saying shortly before.

Update: This is interesting, coming from the Toronto Star's Thomas Walkom--one of the anti-Afghan mission persuasion:
...the key element of Obama's Afghan strategy is his decision to commit more U.S. combat troops.

Expect Canada to eventually agree to keep combat soldiers in that country past Harper's self-imposed 2011 deadline...

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