Afstan, President Obama and Canada

Maj.-Gen. (ret'd) Lewis MacKenzie suggests how Canada might respond to the new US administration:

...
There is little doubt that the current euphoria accompanying the new President into office will make it more difficult for NATO leaders to say no when the inevitable requests for additional troop support are made. Canadian commentators are already speculating that we will be asked to stay in Afghanistan in a combat role after 2011. Mr. Obama could well raise the issue during his visit.

The painful truth is that Canada will not be capable of remaining in Afghanistan in a combat role beyond 2011. Indeed, remaining in such a role until 2011 will present enough of its own problems and challenges.

Our military was slashed and burned during the 1990s when ordered to contribute 27 per cent of its budget toward paying down the national debt, a percentage greater than any other government department. It was impossible to immediately reduce spending by that amount except by dramatically reducing the number of its uniformed personnel. As a result, Canada has an army that can be seated in the old Maple Leaf Gardens with some empty seats left over...

Despite these tiny numbers, by 2011, we will have maintained a battle group (a combat unit of some 1,000 soldiers) in theatre for nearly nine years. The number of soldiers completing multiple tours in Afghanistan (some as many as four to date) and the one-year pretour training and temporary deployments on return to Canada to train recruits have broken parts of the army. Without respite, the remainder will be broken by 2011. This "best little army in the world" needs to be rebuilt. Maintaining the current combat role beyond 2011 would be virtually impossible.

This is not to suggest there would be no Canadian military and paramilitary roles in Afghanistan post-2011. Canada could - and probably will - carry on with numerous enhanced tasks. Our Kandahar Provincial Reconstruction Team and its infantry company protection force could well remain. There is a crying need for additional instructors for the understaffed NATO teams training the expanding Afghan National Army. The international police currently training the problematic Afghan National Police are short some 3,000 instructors! In concert with expanded diplomatic, governance and development commitment, the Canadian footprint in Afghanistan after 2011 could well total 1,000 compared with the nearly 3,000 in-country today [what about the Air Force?]...

It appears that U.S. patience with NATO's lack of progress in Afghanistan is running out. Barack Obama is about to play political hardball.

Retired major-general Lewis MacKenzie was the first commander of UN peacekeeping forces in Sarajevo.