Afstan to the fore

The new US president gets cracking:

Obama says Pakistan, Afghanistan require wider strategy

US President Barack Obama on Thursday [Jan. 22] said Islamist extremists in Pakistan and Afghanistan posed a grave threat that his new administration would tackle as a single problem under a wider strategy.

In announcing a special envoy to the region, Obama said the situation was "deteriorating" and that the war in Afghanistan could not be separated from the volatile border area with Pakistan, where Al-Qaeda and Taliban elements have regrouped.

"This is the central front in our enduring struggle against terrorism and extremism. There, as in the Middle East, we must understand that we cannot deal with our problems in isolation," Obama told employees of the State Department.

Obama, saying US strategy would be carefully reviewed, announced the appointment of seasoned diplomat Richard Holbrooke as a special representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan -- where the Taliban has come back from its ouster by US-led forces in 2001 to wage a bloody insurgency.

"There is no answer in Afghanistan that does not confront the Al-Qaeda and Taliban bases along the border, and there will be no lasting peace unless we expand spheres of opportunity for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan," Obama said.

"This is truly an international challenge of the highest order."

As a candidate, Obama accused his predecessor of taking his "eye off the ball" by invading Iraq. He has vowed to send more combat troops to Afghanistan and reiterated Thursday he would place a higher priority on the region.

Obama said Holbrooke "will help lead our effort to forge and implement a strategic and sustainable approach to this critical region."

"My administration is committed to refocusing attention and resources on Afghanistan and Pakistan and to spending those resources wisely."

But the new president gave a stark assessment of the conditions in Afghanistan and its border with Pakistan, warning "that the American people and the international community must understand that the situation is perilous and progress will take time."

He said violence was up sharply in Afghanistan and that "Al-Qaeda and the Taliban strike from bases embedded in rugged tribal terrain along the Pakistani border." [President Obama has just shown that he's willing to fight as toughly as his predecessor: "Suspected US missile strikes kill 18 in Pakistan.]

"And while we have yet to see another attack on our soil since 9/11, Al-Qaeda terrorists remain at large and remain plotting."

US intelligence agencies suspect Osama bin Laden and other Al-Qaeda figures are operating out of the mountainous border region of Pakistan near Afghanistan.

Holbrooke, best known for forging a peace agreement in 1995 that ended bloodshed in Bosnia, said that Afghanistan and Pakistan were two "distinct" countries entwined by history and ethnic ties.

"This is a very difficult assignment as we all know," said Holbrooke, once dubbed the "Bulldozer" for his no-holds-barred negotiating style in the Balkans.

Obama said that the US diplomatic effort would include working with NATO allies and other states in the region, which could include central Asian countries and India -- arch-rival to Pakistan.

Tensions between the nuclear-armed adversaries spiked after attacks on Mumbai that India blamed on Pakistani militants and "official" agencies. But Islamabad has denied government agencies played any role in the November 26-29 assault that left 174 dead.

The head of NATO, for his part, wants a "civilian surge" for Afstan (and more effective provision and coordination of aid is also needed):

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- President Barack Obama's plan to nearly double American troop numbers in Afghanistan needs to be matched by a similar surge in development workers and aid funding, NATO's top official said Thursday...

[NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop] Scheffer said other NATO allies should also boost troop levels in Afghanistan if possible, but also increase the number of civilian experts to help with reconstruction and development in a country brought to its knees by decades of war.

"I do see the need for the military surge President Obama is proposing, but it should be met with a civilian surge [emphasis added]," he told reporters. "Let us not be under the illusion that extra U.S. force (alone) will do the trick."..

Meanwhile, the American-backed Afghan government initiative to use some sort of local militias is not having clear sailing (see here and here for Canadian doubts):

Disputes cloud Afghan 'public guards' plan
The Western-backed program to organize volunteer tribesmen to ward off Taliban attacks on their villages has been delayed. Some fear a resurgence of intertribal violence.

In village after village, the pattern is the same. Sinister "night letters" threaten tribal elders considered loyal to the government. The local girls school is forced to close down -- or goes up in flames. Those bold or reckless enough to travel by road risk ambush, abduction or worse.

Alarmed by the tightening Taliban grip on huge swaths of Afghan countryside, U.S. strategists last year began quietly pushing the idea of using locally recruited tribesmen to protect their villages against an increasingly lethal insurgency.

But since then, this American-backed and Afghan-administered "public guards" initiative has been hit by disputes and delays, clouding prospects for wider success even before a limited pilot program begins.

Proponents say the public guards could provide much-needed backup for thinly deployed Western and Afghan forces -- who, NATO and U.S. commanders say, will remain overstretched even with the arrival this year of as many as 30,000 additional American troops. President Obama has indicated that the Afghan conflict will be a top priority of his new administration.

But Western diplomats and Afghan officials familiar with planning of the public guards program say fundamental disagreements remain over the mission and makeup of the force. The disputes include such basics as whether its members will be armed and by whom, how they will be vetted and who will command them.

The idea of Western forces striking alliances with tribes to fight insurgents gained currency in Iraq, where Sunni Arabs' Awakening movement was widely credited with bringing about a significant drop in violence. Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the former Iraq commander who heads the U.S. Central Command and visited Afghanistan this week, is expected to move aggressively to revamp U.S. strategy here.

With confidence in Afghanistan's central government faltering among Western allies and the Afghan electorate alike, hyper-local initiatives such as the public guards plan are likely to become a more important piece of that puzzle...

The timing, though, remains unclear. An inaugural effort was to have been launched already in Wardak, a violence-plagued province on Kabul's doorstep, as a prelude to setting up similar micro-militias in the country's south and east. But Afghanistan's Interior Ministry, which will oversee the public guards program, has several times postponed its rollout...

"We are not talking here about creating tribal militias," said Army Col. Gregory Julian, a spokesman for U.S. forces in Afghanistan. U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization commanders instead liken the program to a "neighborhood watch" -- albeit one more anxious about beheadings and school burnings than burglary...

"We need to protect our country with our police and army, not a bunch of uneducated guys running around with guns," said Khan Mohammed, a businessman in the southern city of Kandahar. "One trained soldier or policeman is better than 10 or even 50 militiamen, because they won't follow any rules."

But to authorities in places like Wardak, where long stretches of the main national highway are littered with the remains of bombed-out convoys and government control is tenuous everywhere except district centers, the idea seems worth trying...

U.S. and NATO officials said they did not envision arming the public guards. But one American military official acknowledged that nearly every village home has weapons, and use of them might be tacitly allowed.

Critics consider that hypocritical.

"It's a bad plan -- why did the international community insist that we get rid of illegal weapons and then turn around and do this?" said Haji Ahsan Noor, a member of the Kandahar provincial council.

Villagers themselves are torn between the desire for protection and fear that these local guards might aggravate the danger. Many in Wardak are waiting to see whether the presence of 3,200 troops from the U.S. Army's 10th Mountain Division, who this month are deploying there and to nearby Lowgar province [see 2) here], will force the insurgents to pull back [Upperdate: 'Afstan: Not militias but the "Afghan Public Protection Force"']...

Update: Mr Holbrooke's appointment, plus the US troop surge, will put a lot of pressure on NATO to get its act in gear or face the Americans really taking charge on Afstan (via Yrys):

NATO's top commander in Southern Afghanistan believes the U.S. president's intention to send an additional 30,000 American troops into the war-torn country will be a "very effective" strategic move.

Maj. Gen. Mart de Kruif says the troop surge ordered by U.S. President Barack Obama will help improve the level of security that NATO troops can offer the Afghan people.

"What we need here in Afghanistan is more boots on the ground to deliver more 24-7 security to the people," he told CTV's Canada AM on Friday.

"I don't think it will spur more Taliban attacks but it will definitely lead to an increase in incidents because we will go into regions and bring security where we've never been before until now," de Kruif said.

"And that will possibly lead to a spike of incidents within RC (Regional Command) South."

De Kruif, 50, said Obama's apparent push to have his administration use more diplomacy in its foreign policy efforts has not yet affected NATO's approach to its work in Afghanistan [emphasis added].

"We are operating here more on the tactical level, so until now, I haven't got any new orders," he said.

But he conceded that the Obama administration's appointment of former United Nations ambassador Richard Holbrooke as a special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan was a commendable move.

"I think that one of the solutions of this conflict is, of course, a regional approach in which we try to increase the situation in the whole region," de Kruif said.

"From that point of view, the appointment of Mr. Holbrooke is a good sign and a step forward from my point of view."'..

I wonder what President Obama said to Prime Minister Harper about Afstan on the phone.

And the Russians say they'll play nice:

MOSCOW -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says Moscow is ready to help stabilize the situation in Afghanistan.

Russia says it is willing to allow the United States and others to cross Russian territory with cargo intended for coalition forces in the war-wracked nation [more on non-Pakistani supply routes here].

Medvedev said that Russia also is prepared to help international efforts to combat drug-trafficking and terrorism in Afghanistan.

During his visit to Afghanistan's neighbour Uzbekistan, Medvedev voiced hope that Barack Obama's administration will do better than its predecessors in stabilizing Afghanistan.

Medvedev's comments appear to reflect the Kremlin's wish to mend ties with Washington, which deteriorated under the administration of George W. Bush.

U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Wood says he welcomes Medvedev's comments.