Afstan: What large number of US troops in the south will mean for Canada

An earlier post wondered about this:

Major change in Canadian ground role in Kandahar province?

Now looks pretty definite, according to this Toronto Star story:

Great expectations for U.S. Afghan reinforcements

Surge of U.S. troops in Afghanistan will take weight off Canadians, allow more reconstruction, training

It's the new broom for sweeping terrorism from Afghanistan. The silver bullet aimed at the heart of the Taliban insurgency.

For Canada, the surge of up to 12,000 extra American troops promised by President Barack Obama's administration is the cavalry coming over the hill, after years of pleading for reinforcements in the country's embattled south...

It will put new boots on the ground in southern Afghanistan – alongside those of some 2,500 Canadian soldiers – and take the fight to the provinces of Wardak and Lowgar in the neglected central region, where the Taliban has rebounded in recent months.

But Obama's new administration has already warned expectations should not be too high, that the boosted numbers will end the Taliban insurgency. The militants have infiltrated parts of Afghanistan and restored a regime of fear with bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, rapes and a draconian crackdown on women and girls.

U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates told reporters the campaign would be "a long slog," adding "we need to be very careful about the nature of the goals we set for ourselves in Afghanistan [more here]."..

For Canada's troops – and government – the immediate effect will be relief. As the military death toll mounts, public support for the Afghan operation has waned.

Canada is committed to two more years in Afghanistan, with a new emphasis on reconstruction and training. The U.S. escalation [oh! that freighted word], scheduled for this summer, will also change the focus of Canadian forces in Afghanistan [emphasis added].

"It will free them to pull back and assume responsibility largely for Kandahar city and surrounding area and focus the mission on protecting civilians instead of fighting the Taliban," says Janice Stein, co-author of The Unexpected War: Canada in Kandahar, and director of University of Toronto's Munk Centre for International Studies.

"That responds better to the capabilities we have. But there is a large risk we need to understand. It means being present on the ground on foot. There will be more foot patrols, more contact with civilians, and obviously more risks from roadside (bombs), still the principal weapon causing death."..

The new troops will concentrate on clearing and holding territory, a near-impossible mission for smaller forces that were thinly stretched [emphasis added]. But the gains won't solidify without a longer-term strategy.

"Ultimately, the clock is ticking in Afghanistan," says Seth Jones, a Rand Corporation expert on Afghanistan. "Numbers are a tiny fraction of the game. The solution lies in trying to link up with local institutions."

Ideally, Canada and other western countries would hand over secured territory to the Afghan National Army and security forces, which are still in the training stage...