Government's "National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy": Numbers don't make sense, esp. for Coast Guard

More sound and fury, smoke and mirrors, from the government--and our media bought it hook, line and sinker (more stories here, and here):

Shipbuilding strategy will leave yards 'humming': MacKay

Canada's ship yards will be "humming like they haven't hummed since the Second World War" under a $35 billion, 30-year federal shipbuilding strategy announced Thursday, says Defence Minister Peter MacKay.

The government will select two Canadian shipyards — one to construct large combat vessels, the other for non-combat ships — within the next two years [emphasis added, so no new vessels likely to start construction before 2013, some progress!], and contracts for smaller ships would be open to bids by other Canadian shipyards. Competition would be national and overseen by a "fairness monitor."..

MacKay said the priority is the construction of joint supply ships for the Canadian navy, a project that has been delayed for two years since the government halted the procurement process due to bidders' non-compliance with requirements and costs...

"This strategy will be the framework through which the government invests $35 billion over the next thirty years to acquire twenty-eight large vessels for the Canadian Coast Guard and the Canadian navy [emphasis added], as well as more than a hundred smaller ships," MacKay said.

Where did Mr MacKay get those figures? The official news release makes no mention of either funding or numbers of ships. The CBC story is the only one to smell some smoke:

...
It is unclear how much of the $35-billion price tag is new money as the Canada First Defence strategy (first outlined by the Harper government in May 2008) called for spending $20 billion to replace destroyers and frigates and other vehicles in the Canadian Forces fleet between now and 2028.

It also called for $15 billion in previously announced purchases of vehicles, including offshore patrol ships...

In fact adding those two figures together is the only way to get a $35 billion figure, and they include a lot more than ships, do not mention the Joint Support Ship--and do not include vessels for the Coast Guard. The minister is indeed either blowing smoke, or else doesn't know what he's talking about. From the "Canada First Defence Strategy", see first two under "equipment":

...


[Lots on current budgeting here]...

This government has been in power for over four years and still has signed no contract for any new Navy ship. No contract will be signed for at least another two years. No ship in service for at least three years after that. From 2006 to 2015 to get a new boat. Great work, eh?

Some key details about Navy building from another news release:

...
Two shipyards will be selected to build the large vessels (1000 tonnes displacement or more [must apply for CCG ships too]), through a fair, transparent and competitive process...

One shipyard will be selected to build combat vessels. This will enable the procurement of the Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC) and Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ships (AOPS). The surface combatant project will renew the Navy's surface fleet by replacing various warfare capabilities of the destroyers (Iroquois-class) and multi-role patrol frigate (Halifax-class) ships. The primary tasks of the Arctic ships will be to: conduct sea-borne surveillance operations in Canada's Economic Exclusion Zones (EEZs), including the Arctic; provide awareness of activities and events to various departments; and cooperate with other elements of the Canadian Forces and other federal government departments to assert and enforce Canadian sovereignty, whenever and wherever necessary [not "blue-water" vessels].

Another competitively selected shipyard will build non-combat vessels, such as the Joint Support Ships (JSS) [emphasis added]. The capabilities required of these ships are crucial to the Canadian Forces. The Joint Support Ship increases the range and sustainment of a Naval Task Group , permitting it to remain at sea for significant periods of time without going alongside for replenishment. These vessels will also provide capacity for sealift and support to troops ashore...

Now for some real fun with figures that show the government is not up to very much in reality.

We are promised 28 large ships over 30 years. Well, the Navy is already allocated 3 JSS and 6-8 AOPS, supposed to be built over the next few years, total cost $4.6 billion (look them up here). That's eleven ships max. Then there are supposed to be 15 new Canadian Surface Combatants to replace our detroyers and frigates--the first is not likely to appear before 2020 (see "What's the time frame for a new surface combatant?" here). These, especially if all 15 are built, will be hugely expensive, far beyond the price of the other two types. But, far in the future as they are, no specific funding has been allocated for their construction.

Thus planned large Navy ships: 24-26. And the government says it will build in total 28 large ships for both the Navy and the Coast Guard over the next 30 years!

What about the Coast Guard? The government is now committed to 5 large vessels--see this news release on their share in the shipbuilding strategy, total cost some $1.2 billion.

So the number of large vessels specifically planned for over the next 20 or so years is 29-31--already over the 28 promised in 30 years.

But wait! There's more! The CCG now has 28 ships over 1,000 tonnes. Of those 15 will soon be over 30 years old (see preceding link), the youngest will soon be 25 years old, and only 5 replacements are in train. That leaves 23 other ships to be replaced, one would surely hope and expect, as part of the government's shipbuilding strategy.

So let's recount. The government says it will build 28 large ships over 30 years. It already has public plans for 29-31, Navy and CCG. Yet the CCG still has those 23 more old and older vessels about which nothing is being said. That is a huge shortfall in the government's numbers; as things now stand the CCG is sailing towards oblivion--even if somewhat fewer new and better ships might do for the aging 23.

Where is the money and schedule to rebuild the Coast Guard? I guess, since only $5.8 billion has been committed so far for large ships ($4.6 billion Navy plus $1.2 billion CCG, see above), there's around $29 billion of mythical government money left of that $35 billion the MND mentioned to build a whole lot of ships for the CCG--plus the Navy's surface combatants.

Sure.

And how will having two monopoly shipyards for large vessels keep costs under control? The utter political madness of insisting we build ships in Canada rather than purchasing abroad--if not entire ships and systems, at least, say, hulls over even just designs. As we in fact have done for some new CCG vessels--more here regarding the JSS (note Dutch building their hulls in Romania), and here on the JSS and AOPS. Note also the Aussies buying Spanish, with some work in Australia.

A recent post in which I wonder about the government's ability to pay for promised future defence spending, about its inability refusal really to deal with a new defence strategy, and about whether Canada can continue to afford a blue-water fleet:

"Gov't shipbuilding strategy moving towards launch?"/Musings on the CF's future

While from Babbling:

Making the argument for our Navy