The Torch: Afstan: Brits de-wobble, eventual shift to Kandahar still possible?

But don't always put that much stock in The Economist's musings:

The wars over the war
A new government gets to grips with another foreign-policy priority

...Officials said the Chequers meeting was not a “review” of policy, but only a “seminar” intended to “take stock”. Mr Cameron, it is said, told the gathering that his government was not about to change course, and would support America’s war. On the same day, the prime minister called the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, for what officials say was a “warm” talk about the “peace jirga” being held in Kabul, and about preparations for military operations in Kandahar.

British qualms about the war—a poll by Com Res in April found that 77% of the British public wanted troops withdrawn from Afghanistan—take second place to Mr Cameron’s desire to forge close ties with the Obama administration. That message will delight Robert Gates, the American defence secretary, who will be visiting London to meet members of the new government before a NATO meeting in Brussels on June 10th and 11th.

The American commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, is due to submit in December the results of a review that will set out how far and how quickly NATO can start drawing down forces next year. Barring a political or military disaster, British officials are assuming that, regardless of how many provinces “transition” to nominal Afghan control in the coming months, a substantial number of foreign troops will remain in Afghanistan until about 2014.

It may be a sign of the prevailing mood in Whitehall that rumours are now circulating about the possible demise of Sir Jock Stirrup, the chief of the defence staff, perhaps in favour of the Afghanophile army chief, General Sir David Richards [more here]. Behind the scenes, General Richards has promoted the idea that British troops should move from Helmand to Kandahar province. Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city and the Taliban’s ideological fount, has always seemed to ambitious British officers a more prestigious property than Helmand. The departure of the Canadian contingent next year would create the opening for the British to move in, play a central role in the next phase of the war, maximise Britain’s influence with the Americans and, perhaps, retain a permanent command for the British.

Such ideas, though, seem to have been blocked at the top. Britain has invested heavily in military infrastructure, and in developing contacts and intelligence sources in Helmand. As Dr Fox put it: “It would be crazy to go somewhere else and start all over again.”

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