"Defence Budget 2010/11"/Fun with figures Update

A brief paper by Colonel (Ret’d) Brian MacDonald, Senior Defence Analyst, Conference of Defence Associations.

Update: Here are the plans for capital equipment spending-- a few excerpts (sorry alignment not perfect, for "Phase": "D = Definition, I = Implementation"):

Project Number	Project Title and Phase	Phase	Current Estimated Total Cost as at Q4.2	Planned Spending to 31 March 2010	Planned Spending 2010–2011	Planned Spending 2011–2012	Planned Spending 2012–2013	Future Year Require-ments
	($ Thousands)

...

436

Close Combat Vehicles

D

1,808,356

6,232

13,577

71,971

262,801

1,453,774

...

1007

Medium to Heavy Lift Helicopters

I

2,070,699

286,684

418,684

499,526

553,965

311,839

...

1036

Airlift Capability Project (Tactical)

I

2,925,282

1,071,429

871,034

555,347

231,027

196,444

...

1117

Airlift Capability Project (Strategic)

I

1,403,118

1,307,476

67,673

27,968

0

0

...

1216

Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ship

D

2,560,140

19,257

44,603

247,258

359,169

1,889,853

...

1430

Tactical Armoured Patrol Vehicle

D

1,074,324

2,297

10,094

11,300

370,191

680,443

...

2346

Medium Support Vehicle System

D

1,114,734

115,502

225,443

109,966

267,512

396,309

...

2586

Halifax Class Modernization/Frigate Life Extension(FELEX)

I

2,353,370

379,664

263,645

330,264

290,931

1,088,866

...

2673

Joint Support Ship

D

131,889

49,983

39,642

32,323

9,941

0

...

2680

Maritime Helicopters

I

3,118,046

1,465,107

599,493

189,261

283,281

580,904

...

1247

Light Armoured Vehicle III Upgrade

D

1,187,116

120

49,568

114,340

117,739

905,350

...

Note the very large Future Year Requirements (post 2012/13), as part of total cost, for these projects:

*Close Combat Vehicles
*Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ship
*Tactical Armoured Patrol Vehicle
*Medium Support Vehicle System
*Halifax Class Modernization/Frigate Life Extension(FELEX)
*Light Armoured Vehicle III Upgrade

Now the FELEX is an "I" project, i.e. with contracts. All the rest are "D"--that is no contract so lots of room for further deferrals, changes or chops (see them in the list here; part of the overall Medium Support Vehicle System actually does have a contract).

And note the tiny amounts for the Joint Support Ship, something very odd especially the total cost. And note there is no listing for the fixed-wing SAR aircraft project.

These figures for total costs for by service for all the projects are interesting:

*Army: $5.2 billion
*Air Force: $9.6 billion (without fixed-wing SAR--and the aircraft are mainly to support the other two services with the maritime helicopters being the most expensive of all projects, by a nose)
*Navy: $5.1 billion (but that's with tiny costs for the JSS)

All the Air Force projects have contracts and all the planes were actually selected some time ago, with the four strategic C-17s now in service and the tactical C-130Js starting to arrive soon (as for the maritime choppers...). Only the Navy's FELEX project has a contract; none of the Army's does with the small exception mentioned above.

Other major projects presumably too early to list are the Navy's Canadian Surface Combatant (destroyer and frigate replacement) and the Air Force's CF-18 fighter replacement.

Noteworthy too from the main 2010/11 "Report on Plans and Priorities"--tiny regular CF personnel increase:

...

Table: Human Resources

Human Resources Summary (Full-Time Equivalent - FTE) 4
	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Regular Force	67,742	68,000	68,300
Primary Reserve (Class C)	1,600	386	223
Total Military	69,342	68,386	68,523
Total Civilian	30,355	30,411	30,400
TOTAL	99,697	98,797	98,923

Note:

Class A and B Reserve Force FTE numbers are calculated using a different methodology, and are not included in this table. Further information on Primary Reserve Planned Expenditures can be found in Section III: Other Items of Interest - Reserve Force - Primary Reserve Planned Expenditures / Primary Reserve Full Cost Estimates...