CF-18 Hornet replacement update: Can Canada afford the F-35? (Can anyone?)

Earlier:

CF-18 Hornet replacement update (sort of)...

Replacing Canadian fighter jets to cost $9B

...in April, Col. Randy Meiklejohn of the directorate of aerospace requirements told a gathering of defence industry representatives in Ottawa that the cost of the program would be about $9 billion...The air force, he pointed out, plans to have the new aircraft in service starting in 2017. The figure he used would include not only the 65 aircraft, but spare parts and long-term support...

Then the CDS:

...Wednesday [June 2], Natynczyk made a point of pitching for another anticipated big-ticket purchase, the replacement of the air force's nearly 30-year-old CF-18 jet fighters.

"The point is, these aircraft entered service in 1982. Despite upgrades [see here], they're getting old and need to be replaced soon," he said.

The price tag for buying new fighters is estimated to be anywhere between $5 and $10 billion, depending on the type of aircraft and the number being purchased.

Now down south:

Pentagon acquisition czar Ashton Carter recertified the embattled Lockheed Martin Joint Strike Fighter program to move forward after a major cost increase, but defense officials are now saying the total acquisition price of the multinational, triservice aircraft has increased by yet another $54.2 billion.

Carter sent his Nunn-McCurdy recertification letter to Congress on June 1. This recertification was widely expected, as Pentagon officials since last fall have been working to restructure the single-engine, stealthy fighter program through a series of rigorous reviews in anticipation of the cost breach. But the recertification documentation includes more detail about the extent of problems leading up to the most recent cost spike.

Since December, Pentagon officials anticipated the per-unit cost including the price of development to be $112 million; it is now expected to be $155.6 million. The number most closely associated with flyaway pricing was estimated at $92.4 million only a few months ago; it is now at $133 million [emphasis added]. Earlier this year, development was extended from Fiscal 2012 to Fiscal 2016 in an effort to reduce schedule risk and concurrency between testing and production...

Neither of those estimates seems to include in-service costs. But at $133 million--without those costs--65 for our Air Force would be some $8.7 billion (then there's the future exchange rate). That's already awfully close to our $9 billion which includes in-service costs.

Meanwhile others interested in the F-35 are having price problems:

UK:

...
One programme that will come under scrutiny is the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Even assuming the planned purchase is cut from 150 to 60 aircraft, the programme could cost the UK £5bn or more, starting around 2017, with perhaps another £10bn-£15bn in lifetime support costs, says the report [by the Royal United Services Institute,
p. 15]...

Even with the Canadian dollar at 1.50 to the pound that's a minimum of $22.5 billion with lifetime support (is that comparable to our "spare parts and long-term support"?). For 60 aircraft, not 65. Hmmm.

Netherlands:

...

In the final debate of the current parliament before national elections to be conducted on 9 June, the Dutch Labour party announced its intention to withdraw from the programme's initial operational test and evaluation phase, and to return its one aircraft one order to Lockheed.

Labour party defence specialist Angelien Eijsink says the main reason for the decision is that "the price of the aircraft is still uncertain, and the project keeps on sliding on the agreed timescale"...

A majority of parliament voted to stop the project and ordered the defence secretary to do so. He has not executed this request, however, due to an earlier decision that the resigning government would not take any irreversible steps in its last days in power...

Lockheed was due to deliver the Netherlands' first test aircraft during 2011, and had been expecting a decision on whether it would buy a second example later this year [bit ahead of our timetable for a new fighter].