I wouldn't be so sure about Kandahar

Even if Canada remains formally in charge of the province, real direction of military operations will inevitably flow to the US since there troops there will during the coming year, substantially outnumber ours:

Canada calls the shots: new brass

Canada's military leadership in Kandahar will not take a back seat to the massive influx of U.S. troops expected later this year, says Brig.-Gen. Jon Vance, who will soon take over the Afghan mission.

"Right up until the time Canada leaves, we will remain the lead in Kandahar Province," he said.

"The American forces aren't coming in superimposed on us. Their deployment is going to be complementary to us." The U.S. is expected to bolster its Afghanistan presence by as many as 20,000 troops in the next year, and perhaps eventually 30,000.

At least some of those will be deployed to the volatile Kandahar Province, where the majority of Canada's 2,700 troops are based.

Vance, an Edmonton-based soldier who leaves Canada for the top command role in Afghanistan tomorrow, said Canadian troops will continue to "set the tempo" in the southern province, where there has been increased insurgent activity and attacks in the past year.

However, the surge of U.S. troops will benefit Canada's mission, he predicted.

"It will have an immediate effect on the ability to provide security to the inhabitants of Kandahar Province," Vance said.

"Part of the challenge, to this point, is that we've simply been too thin on the ground. We simply haven't had the reach and ability to see to the security of all Afghan civilians. This will make it harder for insurgents to operate." Vance will replace Brig. Gen. Dennis Thompson, who has been in command in Afghanistan since May 2008.

Vance will be busy for the duration of his 10-month command. He has newly deployed helicopters to use, a new provincial governor to work with, a more active insurgency, development projects and a presidential election.

The Afghanistan vote, scheduled for Aug. 20, is at the top of the list.

These earlier posts are relevant:

The "Americanization" of ISAF

Afstan: What large number of US troops in the south will mean for Canada

Afstan: The US and coming realities in Regional Command South

US to take command in Kandahar province

Update thought: Perhaps the end result may be that Canada will retain some sort of formal command for the province, with real command in Kandahar City and for military reconstruction efforts--with the US effectively running combat operations ("complementary") in the province as a whole.