US to take command in Kandahar province

The question asked at the end of this post is answered; a nice bit of reporting by the Globe and Mail's Graeme Smith on something the rest of the major media missed:

GRAEME SMITH AND STEVEN CHASE

PASAB, AFGHANISTAN, OTTAWA - Canada appears ready to give up its leadership position in Kandahar before its mandate ends in 2011, ceding command to a surge of U.S. troops [see first link above] that will ease the burden the Canadian military shouldered nearly three years ago when it took charge of the province.

Canada's senior officer in Afghanistan yesterday suggested Canada may soon take a less prominent role in war-ravaged Kandahar province - comments made on the same day U.S. Secretary of Defence Robert Gates called on Ottawa to extend its mission beyond 2011...

After a meeting with Mr. Gates in Kandahar yesterday, Canada's top officer in the province was asked about rumours that the United States is planning to install a headquarters for a U.S. two-star general at Kandahar Air Field.

"Yeah, they will eventually be the commander," Brigadier-General Denis Thompson said. "It's always a touchy subject, but for soldiers it's pretty simple. If you have the most troops, you get the command."

Canada assumed leadership of all regular international troops in Kandahar during a handover ceremony in February, 2006 [how things have changed]...

Canada will retain an important role in the shadow of the U.S. arrivals in Kandahar, Brig.-Gen. Thompson said. Canadian forces have learned valuable lessons in Kandahar and will make sure that experience is shared as Canadian officers serve alongside their U.S. counterparts in intelligence, logistics, and other staff branches, he said.

"In the run-up to 2011 we will obviously still be a player," he said.

"We will insist, based on [our] numbers on the ground, that we have certain billets in the headquarters and we'd be looking for an influential deputy commander billet - deputy commander manoeuvre, deputy commander ops [operations], something like that - to make sure that we have our finger on the pulse and that we're making sure that people benefit from our knowledge."..

Steven Chase in Ottawa gives some speculation (excerpt out of sequence):

Military analysts say that while they expect Canada to yield leadership in Kandahar to the United States between the spring of 2009 and early 2010, they don't believe Canada's soldiering commitment to Afghanistan will end in 2011.

"My gut feeling is the government has not closed the door completely," Conference of Defence Associations executive director Alain Pellerin said. "There will still be a requirement for trainers ... we will [still] be there with development and reconstruction."

Canada's combat battle group should be gone by 2011 but observers estimate Ottawa may leave 500 to 1,000 Canadians behind to handle such tasks as mentoring Afghan soldiers, protecting reconstruction and assisting development.

Retired major-general Lewis MacKenzie said there's no chance Canada could keep a 1,000-soldier battle group in Kandahar past 2011 because the army is overstretched and wearing out. "Parts of the army are broken. ... They're having a bitch of a time putting together a battle group now, let alone a couple of years from now."..

My own speculation at the end of this post on a possible mission after 2011.

Here's another troop increase, but only temporary:

Italy will temporarily increase its number of troops in Afghanistan by 500 next year in the face of a "delicate operational situation" in western Herat province, the government said on Wednesday.

"The commitments we have made within NATO demand that our contingent in Afghanistan reach the figure of 2,800 for six months in 2009," Defence Minister Ignazio La Russa told the Senate defence and foreign affairs committees.

La Russa said the increase would respect the ceiling of 2,600 set by parliament for the deployment because it refers to an average over a 12-month period.

The defence minister was speaking the day after meeting with visiting US General David Petraeus, commander of US forces in the Middle East and Central Asia, who said he favoured a US troop surge in Afghanistan...

NATO currently has some 50,000 troops in Afghanistan spread across the country with many of the Italians based in Herat which borders Iran.