Saturday, December 13, 2008

Speeding up new fixed-wing SAR aircraft acquisition--why?

I wonder what is behind the seemingly sudden urgency. This was the situation in April 2008:
The Defence Department's report on plans and priorities for the new budget year says the Buffalo replacement project will only proceed into its definition phase this year, with the delivery of new aircraft not expected until 2014-15.

The new chief of air staff, Lt.-Gen. Angus Watt, said at his swearing-in ceremony last summer that a proposal for new fixed-wing search planes would go before the federal cabinet "soon."
And in July, from a good authority:
Fixed-wing SAR aircraft: Specifications for bidding are being solidified. H Hercules will take over aerial SAR in most of Canada from Es as the latter are retired; there will be no gap in the capability.
Now MND MacKay is trying to move at warp speed, by Canadian government standards:
The Harper government is readying itself to tender a multi-billion dollar contract for replacing Canada's aging search and rescue planes – evidence the Tories are putting more emphasis on military matters beyond Afghanistan as the clock ticks down on Canada's commitment there.

“There is no greater priority right now for the armed forces. Domestically, we need those aircraft,” Defence Minister Peter MacKay said in an interview.

The next step is obtaining cabinet approval to proceed with a contract, he said, calling it a “top priority” for ministers when they reconvene.

“We're hopeful we're going to move on that early in the new year. What I asked our department to do was accelerate this.”

Mr. MacKay said Ottawa intends to “move as quickly as possible in contracting” for up to 17 planes to replace the 41-year-old Buffalos that patrol the Rockies and coastal British Columbia, as well as the aging Hercules on the East Coast. [What about the aging Hercules at Trenton and Winnipeg, eh? Where almost all the SAR Hercs are.]

The minister said the government is determined to ensure the purchase of these new aircraft fares better than delay-plagued efforts to procure new maritime helicopters.

“I do not want to find ourselves in any situation similar to what happened with the maritime helicopter program. That can't be replicated and there are some hard lessons that were learned,” Mr. MacKay said of efforts to replace the Sea King helicopters that began under the former Liberal government [memo to the MND: there's no comparison between the two programs; you're playing political silly buggers, see below].

The Harper government took office in February of 2006 with a “Canada first” defence strategy that emphasized domestic protection and a promise to replace search and rescue planes. But the intensifying war in Afghanistan quickly shifted their military focus abroad.

Meanwhile, however, the Buffalo planes, which entered service in the late 1960s, have been plagued by breakdowns, a shortage of parts and frequent downtime for repairs [but the situation seemed under control for the next while; again, why the sudden push?].

Although the former Liberal government laid out plans to replace them, the Conservatives have so far primarily focused military equipment spending on items useful for the war in Afghanistan...
Now that's some misleading reporting in the last paragraph above, along with "evidence the Tories are putting more emphasis on military matters beyond Afghanistan" and "But the intensifying war in Afghanistan quickly shifted their military focus abroad". Blame it all on Afstan, right, to stoke readers' outrage at neglect of domestic missions. That's editorializing, not reporting.

In fact the Liberals announced--in 2004 as a "major priority"--that the first new fixed-wing SAR planes would be delivered in 2005; that delivery was pushed back in 2005 to 2006/2007. Nothing happened. In November 2005 a massive package advocated by then-MND Bill Graham to buy about 15 each of fixed-wing SAR aircraft, tactical airlifters (i.e. C-130Js), and large helicopters (i.e. Chinooks) was shot down for political reasons (Bombardier lobbied fiercely because the specifications for the SAR plane would have excluded a Q Series variant). Those Chinooks were likely planned with the new Afghan mission at Kandahar somewhat in mind (by the way, a contract for CH-47F Chinooks (the same aircraft involved in Bill Graham's package) that the current government expected to award in fall 2008 still has not been signed) .

The Liberal cabinet instead only approved the tactical transport buy, choosing to do nothing about fixed-wing SAR .

Moreover, the only aircraft purchase the Conservative government has made, with mainly Afstan in mind, that the previous Liberal government did not consider too is the C-17 strategic airlifter.

The Conservatives, in January 2007, looked like they would move forward on fixed-wing SAR, but politics seem again to have intervened (an outcry against "sole-sourcing") and nothing happened.

Then, in July 2007:
Fixed-wing SAR replacement: "we’re putting proposals in front of the government to that end"
...
The EADS-CASA C-295 and the Alenia C-27J Spartan are believed to be the main contenders, but there has also been talk that Montreal-based Bombardier is interested in bidding [but Bombardier has no suitable plane unless politics really intrude].
The US recently selected the C-27J for its new Joint (army, air force) Cargo Aircraft.
No visible progress resulted.

The conclusion of the Globe story:
Mr. MacKay said he'd hoped to seek cabinet's approval to proceed with a contract for new planes before Parliament recessed for Christmas – but “political circumstances intervened.”

Ottawa has already set money aside for the planes, which are expected to cost about $3-billion including maintenance deals, and Mr. MacKay said his department is “in dialogue with companies that would be capable of building these.”

Procurement industry sources speculate the military favours Alenia North America's C27J Spartan aircraft.
This is the conclusion of a CP story:
...
The purchase of 15 new aircraft is expected to run around $1.5 billion with an additional $1.5 billion tacked on for a 20-year service contract, defence officials said.

The price tag is $200 million higher than when the project was conceived under the Liberals in late 2003 [a miracle if that's all] .

MacKay defended the five-year delay, saying the Defence Department wanted to get the procurement right [emphasis added].
Hardly. It has been a question of getting the politics right for both the Liberal and Conservative governments. Why are they right now? Anything likely in it for Bombardier?

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hate to even think it but I smell a Bombardier political fix in all this.

The C series is now in very much doubt, they just laid off 1000 in the Rec Division and Quebec's premier industry is getting whacked.

So my cynical side says one or the other (295 vs C27) has done some deal where the Bomber becomes a "partner" and will allow Quebec & Ottawa governments to claim victory for saving jobs.

Of course it will mean more $$ for the same planes, but such is the price of political victory.

Hope I'm wrong . . .

Next up . . . ship building contracts !

6:01 p.m., December 13, 2008  
Blogger fm said...

Just be a little careful Mark, because I understand there are some other things at play for prospective C27J customers. Like the timetable for the US purchase. Piggybacking on to that deal either as an FMS case or just another price point could unlock lots of savings for other customers. I understand that's why Australia has been delaying the replacement of our Caribou. Indeed we just decided to retire our Caribou and lease some Kingairs while we wait a little longer (but there is no question of a proper replacement). If that's what Canadian procurement officials have been waiting for as well, it wouldn't be so bad.

7:46 p.m., December 13, 2008  
Blogger Brett said...

I am rapidly losing faith that we will ever see F-model Chinooks in Canada.

12:18 a.m., December 14, 2008  

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