Canadian defence spending: Ineluctable reality

As Eugene Lang writes, the people, and hence in the end the politicians, really don't give a hoot:

If Ottawa fights a deficit, the military has no allies
Budget arithmetic and Canadian politics mean there's no way for the military to be exempt from a major program spending cut

...no government, Conservative or Liberal, has ever paid a discernible political price for slashing defence spending. It is simply not a priority for most Canadians.

Brian Mulroney's government cut the defence budget by nearly $3-billion in its ill-fated war on the deficit, and paid no political price whatsoever. Jean Chrétien's government virtually emasculated the DND budget, reducing it by one-third during its own deficit crusade, and got off politically scot-free.

While Canadians might be stronger supporters of the military now because of the sacrifices the men and women of the Canadian Forces have made in Afghanistan, it is unlikely that a big cut to a DND budget that approaches $20-billion a year will make any impression on the Canadian public.

In a hierarchy of public interests that includes low taxes, balanced budgets and retention of entitlements, most Canadians place military spending at the very bottom. In fact, there likely hasn't been a public-opinion survey in the history of this country that shows defence cracking into Canadians' top five priorities.

The basic lesson from all this is simple: No government, Conservative or Liberal, is pro-military when it is in a deficit fight. Arithmetic prevents this and politics permits it. That's the way it has been for decades, and that's the way it always will be.

Eugene Lang is co-author of The Unexpected War: Canada in Kandahar. He was a senior economist at Finance Canada and chief of staff to two Liberal defence ministers.

The current case:

So much for the Conservative's "Canada First Defence Strategy"

Never, ever believe a long term political spending promise...