Afstan: Round and round the mulberry bush

Talk about, er, dithering:

1) Obama: Troop Decision Possible Before Afghan Runoff

U.S. President Barack Obama says he may make a decision on a revised Afghan strategy before that country's runoff presidential election on November 7. But Mr. Obama also says an announcement may wait until after the votes are in.

The president makes clear he believes the situation in Afghanistan is still fluid...

2) NATO members: no more troops to Afghanistan now

NATO members the Netherlands and Denmark [26th soldier just killed] said Friday they will not send more troops to Afghanistan unless its Nov. 7 presidential runoff creates a legitimate government and until President Barack Obama decides on a new strategy.

Dutch Defense Minister Eimert Van Middelkoop said his country, with 2,160 troops in Afghanistan, is awaiting the final election results "because the legitimacy of the Afghan government is key," as well as a decision by the Obama administration.

"I think most countries are waiting for the American decisions," van Middelkoop said at a meeting in Bratislava of the defense ministers of the 28 NATO countries...

3) The word from Bratislava

Defence Minister Peter MacKay says the Americans and some other NATO countries will wait until the results of next month’s run-off election in Afghanistan before committing more troops...

Mr. MacKay said U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to wait until after the results of the run-off election to announce details of his troop surge...

Meanwhile, Mr. MacKay said Friday that U.S. Defense Secretary Rober Gates, who was also at the meeting, left the impression that “it’s not a question of if but how many” troops the Americans will commit [emphasis added, more on the SecDef's views here].

“There was a lot of discussions both in the hall and the back halls between countries as to what others might be able to do in terms of troop commitments,” he said, noting that the Slovakians are doubling their commitment to 400 troops [emphasis added].

The ministers were briefed by General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan. He has asked for as many as 80,000 troops...

4) NATO Defense Ministers Endorse Wider Afghan Effort

NATO defense ministers gave their broad endorsement Friday to the counterinsurgency strategy for Afghanistan laid out by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, increasing pressure on the Obama administration and on their own governments to commit more military and civilian resources to the mission...

Although the broad acceptance by NATO defense ministers of General McChrystal’s strategic review included no decision on new troops, it was another in a series of judgments that success there cannot be achieved by a narrower effort that calls for not increasing troop levels substantially and focuses more on capturing and killing terrorists linked to Al Qaeda. That counterterrorism strategy is identified with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr...

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, whose views carry great weight in Mr. Obama’s war council, declined to be drawn out on his assessment. “For this meeting, I am here mainly in listening mode,” Mr. Gates said, although he noted that “many allies spoke positively about General McChrystal’s assessment.”

Mr. Gates said the administration’s decision on Afghanistan was still two or three weeks away [emphasis added], and he cautioned that it was “vastly premature” to draw conclusions now about whether the president would deploy more troops. He emphasized that allied defense ministers had not voiced concerns about the administration’s decision-making process.

Although NATO will not meet until next month to decide whether to commit more resources to Afghanistan [emphasis added], Mr. Gates did reveal that he had received indications that some allies were prepared to increase their contributions of civilian experts or troops, or both...

Kai Eide, the United Nations special representative for Afghanistan, flew to Slovakia to meet NATO defense chiefs, and he stressed that “additional international troops are required.” He also told the allies, “This cannot be a U.S.-only enterprise [well, not "only" but looking increasingly lonely - MC].”..

But I guess Canadians have forgotten their love affair with the UN in the case of Afstan. As for what will happen broadly, mesdames et messieurs, faites vos jeux!

Update: From the Wall St. Journal:

WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration is moving toward a hybrid strategy in Afghanistan that would combine elements of both the troop-heavy approach sought by its top military commander and a narrower option backed by Vice President Joe Biden, a decision that could pave the way for thousands of new U.S. forces.

The emerging strategy would largely rebuff proposals to maintain current troop levels and rely on unmanned drone attacks and elite special-operations troops to hunt individual militants, an idea championed by Mr. Biden. It is opposed by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Kabul, and other military officials.

One scenario under consideration, according to an official familiar with the deliberations, calls for deploying 10,000 to 20,000 U.S. reinforcements primarily to ramp up the training of the Afghan security forces. But Gen. McChrystal's request for 40,000 troops also remains on the table [emphasis added].

People familiar with the internal debates say Mr. Obama rejected a strictly counter-terror approach during White House deliberations in early October. One official said Pentagon strategists were asked to draft brief written arguments making the best case for each strategy, but the strategists had difficulties writing out a credible case for the counter-terror approach -- prompting members of Mr. Biden's staff to step in and write the document themselves.

Signs the White House is moving towards Gen. McChrystal's view of the conflict mounted Friday as the 28 North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers endorsed the commander's counterinsurgency strategy and signaled they might be open to modestly increasing their military and civilian contributions to the war effort...

The U.S. military effort in Afghanistan is at a crucial period, with the White House discussing troop levels and how best to use them. WSJ Foreign Affairs Correspondent Peter Spiegel says more troops will be added. It's only a matter of how many...