Friday, August 07, 2009

No, no, Mr Rasmussen! Danes in Afstan noticed!

The Conservative government just can't say no fast enough:
NATO's new secretary-general is broaching what is apparently the unthinkable in Canadian politics today, urging Ottawa to keep combat troops in Afghanistan past a planned exit date of 2011.

But Anders Fogh Rasmussen's appeal is already meeting stiff resistance from both the Harper government and the Official Opposition Liberals, both of which are unwilling to reopen a debate over this country's future in a war that's seen 127 Canadian soldiers die and is projected to cost taxpayers more than $11-billion...

Mr. Rasmussen said, when asked about Ottawa's 2011 end date for its combat mission. "At the end of the day, it is a question of our own security - we cannot allow Afghanistan once again to become a safe haven for terrorists - and I also think it is in Canada's interest to ensure a peaceful and stable Afghanistan."

Mr. Rasmussen is the former prime minister of Denmark, which has lost a relatively large number of soldiers in Afghanistan relative to its small population [nice that someone in our major media finally noticed the Danes' disproportionate sacrifice, roughly the same as Canada's--more here and here]. His comments come amid rising violence in Afghanistan as elections loom.

Ottawa's response to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization secretary-general was swift and unyielding.

The Conservatives and Liberals have no interest in reopening the issue by discussing a mission extension that might cost them votes or divide their parties as a possible fall election nears.

Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said Ottawa won't be swayed by Mr. Rasmussen's comments.

He said Ottawa is intent on ending Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan in 2011. That's the plan laid out in a House of Commons motion adopted in March of 2008 by the Conservatives and the Liberal Opposition - a deal that ended their back-and-forth feuding on the length and purpose of the Afghan mission.

"As you know, the resolution calls for us to end and stop our military intervention in 2011, and that is exactly what we will be doing," Mr. Cannon said. "That decision's been made known ... and we are going to stay the course."

It's not as if Canada will pull all its soldiers from Afghanistan in 2011, though.

Alain Pellerin, a retired colonel and executive director of the Conference of Defence Associations, said he thinks Ottawa will end up with as many as 1,500 troops in Afghanistan after 2011, focused on assisting development, reconstruction and police and army training.

Mr. Pellerin said he expects that as the 2011 deadline draws nearer, Ottawa will pitch Canadians on a scaled-down version of the mission, a task force that analysts say would lack a battle group needed to mount significant combat operations.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said he thinks there will be a non-combat role in Afghanistan beyond 2011, but rejected doing anything more than that. "The parliamentary resolution remains the position of our party - the combat mission in Kandahar should end in 2011."

Retired major-general Lewis MacKenzie said he doesn't think that Canada has the
infantry strength to keep a 1,200-soldier battle group in Afghanistan beyond 2011.

"It's not a matter of will we extend ... we can't. We will have people on their fourth rotation by 2011 [see this post, 'End of the road (for a while) for expeditionary Army']."
More from Raphael Alexander:
It’s Way Too Late To “Sell” The Afghan Mission To Canadians
Certainly a continuing serious combat mission, I would agree--but there are other possibilities (more here).

Update: The end of a post at The Canada-Afghanistan blog:
...rightly or wrongly, if Canadian soldiers aren't dying, there won't be pressure to bring them home. After a short break, a new mission in another part of Afghanistan, or in a pacified Kandahar, would be politically achievable.

I know this still isn't quite right. I'm sympathetic to the argument that Canada has done its part and deserves a rest, but shit, you don't really get that option in war. Somebody needs to be doing the tough, bloody work in the violent parts of the country, and ideally we'd have a European ally who would rotate in to relieve us of our post. But we all know it will be the Americans, who already have enough on their plate.

As I've said from the beginning, if I could have my way our Prime Minister, Conservative or Liberal, would just stick their neck out on this and say: we are staying until the job is done. We believe in this mission. We're in this for the long haul.

You know, like what Rasmussen said.

5 Comments:

Blogger Anand said...

I don't get it. Aren't Canadians worried about another 9/11 or larger scale terrorist attack? Aren't they worried about Pakistani nukes?

Can the mission be framed as sending ANSF advisors and trainers but not sending combat troops? In any case, combat troops are lower priority than ANSF advisers for the success of the Afghan mission.

Could Canada send an "advisory brigade" that super embeds with 205th ANA Corps and fights with them and through them indefinitely . . . with a clear timeline to drawing down the "advisory brigade" into a brigade HQs (BSTB), and one advisory battalion. Each 205th ANA Corp brigade could get one embedded "advisory battalion" initially, which later draws down to one "advisory company."

If Canada no longer has "combat troops," might this help sell the war? Could Obama sell the war in Canada?

2:50 a.m., August 08, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I don't get it. Aren't Canadians worried about another 9/11 or larger scale terrorist attack? Aren't they worried about Pakistani nukes?"

No.

The Pakistan government will be able to defeat the Taliban in Pakistan.

The Taliban without our interference are the government of Afghanistan. They certainly were the main force before the CIA and Special Forces and really the USAF broke their force against the Northern Alliance. Good tacticians they withdrew to fight again.

They won't give up and the US is about to run out of money. I think your little war game will peter out over the next year or so. They are getting ready to leave but it has to look good.

2:50 p.m., August 09, 2009  
Blogger Anand said...

The US has a GDP of $15 trillion. The US could give one 2,000th of its GDP to the Afghans in grants, and if sustained over twenty years, enable the Afghans to win.

91% of Afghans have an unfavorable view of the Taliban based on the Feb 9, 2009 public opinion poll. The Afghans will fight them forever. But with international help, the Afghans can likely win.

If ISAF drew down to advisors, trainers, special forces, civilian advisors/trainers, and military/economic grants; the Afghans can still win. They aren't in danger of losing most of Afghanistan. About 65% of the violence is in Kandahar and Helmand, two of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. Worst case scenario, they cede large parts of these provinces and some small pockets in the East for a couple of years before the ANSF recaptures them.

4:19 p.m., August 09, 2009  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Umm I don't get the numbers from that poll you do.

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmi.no%2Fpdf%2F%3Ffile%3D%2Fafghanistan%2Fdoc%2F1083a1Afghanistan2009.pdf&ei=5oh_SqbqDYiwswOs1KDuCg&usg=AFQjCNG94aLR62s5FP4Fp8kjaJpyBm9UNg&sig2=rU9sIAJ7Ga2N1DPYzC8_Hg

The US now has debt at about 120% of GDP. That's a very round number anyway. They have very few choices as they are bound by the immense debt and ongoing collapse of their country. It will not be pretty. October probably will tell the tale after Goldman Sachs gets through with their Bull Trap.

The US has to trash their own currency just to pay the Chinese. The Chinese will not be and are not happy with Helicopter Ben's treasury/fed round robin which is presently printing US dollars wholesale.

They understand that no one will lend them money for their wars and there are very few choices left. They will leave Afghanistan as soon as they can.

No it's likely the Taliban will run Afghanistan again.

10:57 p.m., August 09, 2009  
Blogger Anand said...

From your own poll, go to page 32, question 38:
-91% of Afghans have an unfavorable view of the Taliban
-92% of Afghans have an unfavorable view of the Osama Bin Laden
-91% of Afghans have an unfavorable view of the Pakistan

For the 87% favorable view of the ANA (Afghan National Army) please see the June, 2009 poll.

In every Afghan election to date, politicians sympathetic to the Taliban have performed poorly. They are likely to do so again in the elections a few days from now.

US annual GDP is $15 trillion. Your 120% of GDP debt level suggests a $18 trillion debt. Including unfunded entitlement liabilities, it is much higher than that.

The real key to America's ability to manage its debt load is technological innovation, or total factor productivity. This is a challenge.

However, why do you think US taxpayers cannot afford the Afghan war? If the US gives the Afghans $150 billion in grants over 20 years, it would cost $7.5 billion a ye ar. This is 0.05% of US annual GDP. With this money (and with several billion in additional annual grants from other countries for Afghanistan), the Afghans can develop their economy, build their ANSF and defeat the Taliban Quetta Shura, Hekmatyur, Haqqani, the Punjabi Taliban and their other assorted allies . . . even if parts of the Pakistani security establishment back them.

So far the Taliban has proved grossly incompetent. 65% of all Afghan violence takes place in 2 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. 80% or more of all violence are in 3 of Afghanistan's provinces. Why have the Taliban and their allies performed so poorly in 31 out of Afghanistan's 34 provinces?

If you think the American people will forget 9/11 anytime soon, I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

Please also remember that China is Afghanistan's largest trading and investment partner. The Chinese complained vigorously about Osama Bin Laden in the 1990s to the United States while America ignored them. Al Qaeda tapes threatening attacks on China came out in the last week. The Chinese are clearly rooting for the GIRoA, ANSF and Afghan people against the Taliban. For that matter, can you name a single country in the world that is not rooting for the GIRoA, ANSF and Afghan people against the Taliban? Where does your pessimism come from?

Another factoid for you. Today 7 million Afghan children go to school, 33% female. How many girls went to school under the Taliban? This year 45,000 freshman, many woman, were admitted to Afghan universities and colleges versus 1,000 to 2,000 a year in 2001. In what way isn't this a major strategic defeat for the Taliban?

12:59 p.m., August 10, 2009  

Post a Comment

<< Home