Saturday, July 18, 2009

"Iraq-Afghanistan fatalities"

Serious research from BruceR at Flit; I think we've certainly been doing our bit:

Just a quick look again at the combined Iraq-Afghanistan fatalities (figures from icasualties.org):

Total fatal casualties, both theatres (change in the 33 months since I did this the last time):

1. United States: 5066 (+1922)
2. United Kingdom: 364 (+204)
3. Canada: 125 (+83)
4. Italy: 48 (+6)
5. Spain: 36 (+6)
6. Germany: 33 (+15)
7. Poland: 32 (+15)
8. Denmark: 31 (+22)
9. France: 28 (+19)
10. Netherlands: 21 (+16)

Interesting how in 33 months all we've seen is Ukraine drop off the list and Netherlands come up.

Fatalities per 1,000 active-duty military personnel:

1. US: 3.44
2. UK: 1.94
3. Canada: 1.90
4. Denmark: 1.35
5. Latvia: 1.09

Fatalities per million population:

1. US: 16.5
2. UK: 5.91
3. Denmark: 5.64
4. Estonia: 4.48
5. Canada: 3.71

Again, not much change from 3 years ago, with Bulgaria and El Salvador (both of which are not deployed in numbers in Afghanistan) dropping off the list and being replaced in the rankings by the 2 Baltic republics (with 6 fatalities each, but in much smaller militaries (about 5,500 regulars each) and populations).

I think Denmark's contribution to Afghanistan (24 fatalities) and Iraq (7), where they have taken casualties at a greater rate per population, on a population one-sixth the size of Canada's, have generally been under-recognized [emphasis added--quite, see 2) here].

Here's some more stuff, on NATO under- and over-contributions by country:

Positive value is number of soldiers currently being contributed to ISAF above the NATO mean contribution (currently 11.85 soldiers in Afghanistan per 1000 full-time troops). Negative is soldiers below that mean national contribution:

Overcontributors:

UK: +6072
Canada: +2049
Netherlands: +1141
Germany: +441
Denmark: +429
Norway: +158
Latvia: +100
Estonia: +84
Poland: +68
Croatia: +53
Lithuania: +40
Macedonia: +18
Belgium: +17

Undercontributors:

Turkey: -5373
Greece: -1952
Spain: -1329
Portugal: -432
Italy: -376
France: -289
Czech Rep: -247
Romania: -234
Bulgaria: -134
Albania: -97
Slovakia: -80
Hungary: -76
Slovenia: -37
Luxemburg: -2

Lastly, a measure relating to combat intensity for the non-US ISAF countries in the different regions of Afghanistan, judged by total fatalities due to hostile action, factoring in the size of the current contingent (only countries with more than 400 personnel on average over the last 2 years are listed).

1. Canada (South): 38.5 combat fatalities per 1000 troops currently deployed
2. Denmark (South): 32.2
3. UK (South): 20.9
4. Romania (South): 15.9
5. France (East): 11.3
6. Australia (South): 10.9
7. Norway (North): 8.7
8. Spain (West): 8.5
9. Netherlands (South): 8.1
10. Poland (East): 6.8
11. Germany (North): 5.9
12. Italy (West): 3.3
13. Turkey (East): 0.0

Note a high number on this index could indicate consistent hard fighting. It could also indicate a measure of bad luck. What it does manage to confirm, though, is that the risk is being unevenly spread.

To nutshell it, NATO's ISAF contribution is significantly hurt at present by both countries that are underrepresented in terms of numbers, and underrepresented in terms of casualties they're willing to risk. Spain and France are examples of the first condition, Germany and Poland the second, and countries like Turkey, Greece, Portugal and Italy are managing to fail the alliance both ways.

It's a great pity, when one thinks how much of a positive effect those missing 5,000-odd Turkish trrops would have had, particularly in an area like army mentoring [emphasis added].

2 Comments:

Blogger Positroll said...

Seems like Santa listened to your pleas:

German Armed Forces Intensify Fighting Against Taliban

Germany is undergoing its biggest operation yet in Afghanistan. Backed by 300 German soldiers, 1,200 Afghan army troops are mounting an offensive against the Taliban insurgency. The deployment of heavy weapons underscores how serious fighting has become in northern Afghanistan. ...
For the first time, Marder infantry fighting vehicles -- which have heavy firepower and were only recently relocated from Mazar-e-Sharif to Kunduz -- have been deployed. On Sunday, one of these vehicles fired at an insurgent position. And the Germans fired three mortar rounds on areas the Taliban had retreated to. ...
According to SPIEGEL ONLINE sources, missiles are also being fired by German fighter jets in northern Afghanistan for the first time. Following a first deployment of fighter jets on June 15 in northern Afghanistan by the ISAF international security force, most supplied by the United States, Afghan forces requested so-called "air support" for a second time on Sunday. ...
Sources told SPIEGEL ONLINE that five Taliban were killed and two seriously injured after ISAF fighter jets fired missiles and aircraft cannons. The Bundeswehr claims that no collateral damage important enough to be mentioned had occurred in the operation.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,637646,00.html

I was pretty sure this kind of change would (only) come after the September elections in Germany. Now it seems like the German government considered Afghanistan to be more important than a few percentage points in September. I'll give them credit for that.

7:26 a.m., July 23, 2009  
Blogger Babbling Brooks said...

Now it seems like the German government considered Afghanistan to be more important than a few percentage points in September. I'll give them credit for that.

Me too. Good to hear.

12:16 p.m., July 23, 2009  

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