Monday, June 08, 2009

CF's approach at Kandahar/Across the border

While there are some new details in this CP story,
Changing strategy
Focus on winning 'trust and confidence' of Afghans expert
I think the basics of the approach--"model villages"--were covered in this April 16 post:
CF--with Afghans in lead--to "clear and hold" near Kandahar
Meanwhile, tide maybe turning?
Pakistan military campaign has broad support, but for how long?
People across Pakistan, even in the northwest, support the offensive against the local Taliban militants. But among refugees, and areas bearing the brunt of the influx, patience is wearing thin.
More:
Taliban feel Pakistani wrath after mosque blast

Hundreds of Pakistani tribesmen furious over a deadly suicide bombing at a mosque laid siege to several Taliban strongholds in their troubled northwestern region, killing at least 11 militants, officials said Sunday.

The weekend clashes appeared to be the latest evidence of growing anti-Taliban sentiment in U.S.-allied Pakistan, a shift that comes as suicide attacks have surged and the military wages an offensive in the nearby Swat Valley.

The attack on the mosque left 33 worshippers dead and wounded dozens more during Friday prayers, angering residents of the Haya Gai area of Upper Dir district who have had tensions and minor clashes with local militants for months.

Some 400 villagers banded together to attack five villages in the nearby Dhok Darra area that were known militant strongholds, said Atif-ur-Rehman, the district coordination officer...
A few days ago:
Taliban Stir Rising Anger of Pakistanis
A broad view:
Why the Taliban won't take over Pakistan
For reasons of geography, ethnicity, military inferiority, and ancient rivalries, they represent neither the immediate threat that is often portrayed nor the inevitable victors that the West fears.
On the other hand, the unity of the country is pretty fragile; its fissiparousness is what is to be feared, rather than a takeover by the Talib miscreants. And the army sees itself as the guarantor of that unity, which the politicians have been rather poor at promoting--see here and here.

Update: Four operational recommendations for AfPak policy from the Center for a New American Security:
Triage: The Next Twelve Months in Afghanistan and Pakistan
BruceR at Flit:
... if you read anything on the issue this week you must read Andrew Exum's new AfPak report, Triage, written with the advice and support of Kilcullen [more here], Nathaniel Fick, Registan's Josh Foust, Ghosts of Alex's Christian Bleuer, and Josh Schmidle...

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