Kandahar: Putting the best face on the coming realities

The departing head of Canadian Expeditionary Forces Command is doing a bit of spinning, I think:

...
"I have come to understand over the last seven years of personally being involved in this, just how troop intensive it is," said Lieut.-Gen. Gauthier during an interview at the end of a nine-day farewell tour of Afghanistan in which he was joined by Maj.-Gen. Marc Lessard, his successor as head of Canadian Expeditionary Forces Command (CEFCOM) in May...

Some critics contend the arrival of so many U. S. troops in the south will diminish Canada's key role in Kandahar, which is the Taliban heartland. Lieut.-Gen. Gauthier is of a very different opinion.

According to his calculations, the number of combat units fighting insurgents in Kandahar is about to increase sixfold [emphasis added]. But Canada is, he said, to remain responsible for "what I consider to be the most important area of Kandahar province where 75 per cent of the population . . . lives [emphasis added--Kandahar City and the nearby provinces to the north and west]" and would also "retain a leadership role for all of Kandahar province with respect to governance."

Said Lieut.-Gen. Gauthier in a blunt analysis of Canada's greatest shortcoming in Afghanistan: "Despite the best efforts of tens of thousands of Canadian soldiers we have not had the troop density to be able to secure all of Kandahar. Which means we have had to balance our efforts between deepening our effect in certain places and reaching out to disrupt the bad guys. More American troops mean we can concentrate our efforts."

The Canadian strategy going forward is clear, Gauthier said. The military and other branches of the Canadian government have to work closely with the Americans on development so that these efforts converge."

[I understand Canada will keep charge of the PRT--note the civilian contribution, still increasing--under Task Force Kandahar and the Representative of Canada in Kandahar, with the PRT keeping responsibility for the whole province. US personnel will be assigned to the PRT, and US forces will coordinate with the team. More on the PRT here and here - MC.]

Among the continuing challenges is an Afghan national government without capacity and a country that still lacks effective policing, he said. Still, there have been successes.

He recalled the "ravaged battlefield and no people living anywhere," that he had witnessed while standing above the Arghandab River by Mas'un Ghar in October, 2006 after Operation Medusa and how the police had terrorized the local population until the Afghan army stepped in.

Less than three years later the army and police are cooperating, thousands of families had returned to their homes and a bazaar with several hundred shops and stalls had opened nearby.

"All those are signs of progress, but it is localized progress," Lieut.-Gen. Gauthier said. "The fact is that in many parts of Kandahar the ground is contested and the insurgents are able to effect things in a very negative way."

As for the looming fighting season, "with the resilience that the insurgents have shown, I have no doubt they will do everything they can to challenge the growing number of troops here," he said. "That will mean more violence between Afghan national security forces and coalition forces and insurgents. Through this year and into next year there will clearly be more violence."..