Afstan: Negatives--and positives

The government's third quarterly report on Canada’s engagement in Afghanistan is out:

Report cites fading security; Tories say gains still being made [Why "Tories" rather than "Government"?]

Ottawa's latest quarterly report on the Afghanistan conflict paints a bleak picture of deteriorating security but the Harper government insists Canada's $11.3-billion mission in the strife-torn country is still making gains.

"Even though you ... have a rising level of conflict, you can still have a rising level of progress on some key areas," said Conservative cabinet minister Stockwell Day.

"The two can happen at the same time."

The third evaluation of Canada's role in the NATO-led fight against Taliban insurgents was released yesterday, a day after a roadside bomb killed three Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan. The report says the last three months of 2008 were the deadliest fall period in Afghanistan in seven years.

"Throughout Afghanistan, civilian and military casualties reached numbers higher than in any previous autumn quarter since the removal of the Taliban regime in 2001," says the report, titled Canada's Engagement in Afghanistan.

Rising insurgent violence has undermined Afghans' confidence in their safety and their future, the report says. It cites polling from last August that found the proportion of civilians in Kandahar, where Canadian troops operate, who feel security is improving has dropped to less than 30 per cent from more than 50 per cent a year earlier.

"This is a long, hard undertaking with no easy or certain outcomes," the report concludes, saying a full transition to a more secure and stable society will take decades.

Still, the Conservative government says Canada racked up a series of achievements on several fronts - from military training to humanitarian aid - during the final three months of 2008. These include:

About 11,000 people in Kandahar graduated from literacy training -funded by Canada - including 9,000 women.

One school was constructed, bringing the total built, expanded or repaired to three.

A UN program partly funded by Canada vaccinated 370,000 children in Kandahar.

The Afghan National Army's brigade headquarters in Kandahar received enough training and mentoring that it was deemed capable of "planning, executing and sustaining" operations with minimal assistance from foreign forces [emphasis added].

It appears the Canadians are betting that an influx of U.S. troops starting this spring will help pacify Afghanistan. It's expected the Americans will deploy upwards of 25,000 soldiers to Afghanistan, with a significant portion heading to Kandahar...

The report says Kandahar was beset in the last three months of 2008 by "unprecedented numbers" of insurgent attacks using improvised bombs while aggression against those backing the Afghan government rose.

"Assassinations of prominent pro-government Kandaharis and other acts of intimidation also grew more numerous," it says.

The rising conflict also slowed the delivery of humanitarian aid, the report says.

It concludes that there are "no prospects" for early and meaningful political reconciliation between the Kabul government and insurgents [emphasis added].

The official news release is here; it links to the full report.