AfPak: What the US troop increase means/Pak success?

The Americanization of ISAF Regional Command South:

Step aside, limey, this is how to fight the Taliban [nice headline in the UK "quality" press]
...
The troops, from a 2,000-man [US Marine] taskforce based in Helmand [more here], have pushed west into Farah province to choke the Taliban’s supply lines, part of an American plan to contain what they perceive as British “failures” in southern Afghanistan.

Privately the Americans are fiercely critical that the overstretched British are merely “treading water” until more US forces arrive this summer.

The US tactic of taking control of the roads appears to mirror the Taliban’s attempts to target Nato supply convoys in Pakistan’s volatile Khyber region, where dozens of Nato lorries and fuel tankers have been stolen or burned.

On the other side of Helmand, US infantry are expanding two new bases in Maiwand, called Ramrod and Terminator [that's the US Army battalion assigned to Canadian Joint Task Force Afghanistan] , to control the road that runs east into Kandahar.

In Oruzgan province, to the north, work is going on to expand a special forces camp, which the Americans use to launch raids on the Taliban’s mountain hideouts.

In Washir, Nahr Sukh and Garmsir, three districts in central and southern Helmand, US special forces are probing Taliban strength ahead of the summer surge.

Nato’s most senior commander in Afghanistan, David McKiernan, an American, has conceded that the British are locked in a stalemate in Helmand. Privately, British officials admit they do not have enough soldiers to control the ground [similar to the situation in Kandahar province--more here]. “We clear an area and the Taliban run away,” said one official. “But the soldiers can’t stay, so the Taliban creep back. It’s pointless.” American Green Berets and marine special forces are operating in parts of Helmand virtually untouched by the British. Small patrols drive into hostile areas to draw Taliban fire. Last Tuesday, 16 militants were killed in Nahr Sukh, a few miles from British headquarters in Lashkar Gah, when special forces called in airstrikes on a compound from which they had been attacked.

Nato officers say the number of troops in Helmand is expected to double when 8,000 marines and 4,000 soldiers promised by President Barack Obama start arriving at the end of May. Although Britain has about 8,300 troops in Afghanistan, only 4,500 are based in Helmand. The Americans are expected to outnumber them by the end of summer. Most of the marines in Helmand will be deployed in Garmsir to sever supply lines with Pakistan...

The Americans have refused to take orders from Britain’s Taskforce Helmand, which is nominally in charge [emphasis added]. They report directly to a regional headquarters in Kandahar [see here for the likely command set-up for coming US forces at "Canadian" Kandahar province--and here for the new CF focus on just Kandahar city and environs]...

US forces are suffering the effects of the increased role they've already taken:

U.S. deaths in Afghanistan increased threefold during the first two months of 2009 compared with the same period last year, after thousands more troops deployed and commanders ramped up winter operations against an increasingly violent insurgency.

As troops pour into the country and violence rises, another sobering measure has also increased: More Afghan civilians are dying in U.S. and allied operations than at the hands of the Taliban, according to a count by The Associated Press. In the first two months of the year, U.S., NATO or Afghan forces have killed 100 civilians, while militants have killed 60...

Twenty-nine U.S. troops died in Afghanistan the first two months of 2009 — compared with eight Americans in the first two months of 2008.

Part of the increase is due to the influx of troops. In early 2008 there were about 27,000 forces in the country, some 10,000 fewer than today [emphasis added: that's the result of the Bush surge--the Marines mentioned above, the Army brigade mentioned below, and the Army battalion at Kandahar--before the Obama surge].

But U.S. troops are also operating in new, dangerous areas. A brigade of 10th Mountain Division soldiers deployed to two insurgent-heavy provinces outside Kabul in January — Wardak and Logar. And American forces are increasingly operating in Taliban heartland in the south [see first story above]...

Meanwhile the Paks claim some success--how real and for how long, one wonders:

Pakistan has beaten the Taliban in a major stronghold close to the Afghan border, is close to victory in another and expects to pacify most of the remaining tribal areas before the end of the year, commanders said Saturday.

The upbeat assessment of conditions in the arid, mountainous regions of Bajur and Mohmand follows international criticism of Pakistan for accepting a cease-fire with militants behind a bloody campaign in Swat Valley, just next to the tribal regions.

Many analysts also fear that growing political turmoil between the government and opposition could distract attention from the fight against al-Qaida and the Taliban just as Washington wants more concerted action.

The United States and independent analysts have praised the offensive in Bajur, saying it has helped stem the passage of militants from Pakistan into Afghanistan, where violence against American and NATO troops is running at its highest level since the U.S. invasion in 2001...

The display of Pakistan's military gains in the area came as it faces criticism for failing to dislodge militants from the nearby Swat region, where troops and insurgents are observing a cease-fire while the commander of the Taliban considers a proposed peace deal. The United States and NATO worry a deal could turn the scenic region into a militant haven.

Political developments in the desperately poor country of 170 million people have also concerned the West.

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court banned opposition leader Nawaz Sharif from elected office, triggering violent protests by his supporters. Sharif says he will join demonstrations later this month by lawyers who helped bring down former military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

Aside from fears the confrontation will undermine the anti-terror fight, it is also raising worries about possible military intervention [emphasis added--see "Comments" here], a frequent result of political turmoil between civilian leaders in Pakistan.

And from Terry Glavin:

The Price Of Negotiating With The Taliban

The Taliban leadership will consolidate and concentrate its forces in Afghanistan in order to prosecute an offensive against NATO troops.

"If anybody really wants to wage jihad, he must fight the occupation forces inside Afghanistan. Attacks on Pakistani security forces by militants in the tribal areas and elsewhere in Pakistan are harming the war against U.S and NATO forces in Afghanistan."

- Mullah Mohammed Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban, in a letter to the commanders of the Pakistani Taliban, urging them to immediately stop attacks on the Pakistani army.