CF at Kandahar: Repositioning--and reinforcing (temporarily)?

The CF must be pretty worried about the situation to contemplate this (and someone pretty high must have let this balloon float):

Afghan vote may lengthen Canadian battle tours
Security option would see 4,000 troops in country

The general responsible for all Canadian forces deployed overseas said yesterday he had given "written direction" to the incoming commander of Task Force Afghanistan to come up with contingency plans to provide additional security during national elections that are slated to take place on Aug. 20.

Among the possibilities was to put more Canadian boots on the ground during this crucial period. "There certainly is no plan to surge in more Canadian forces or extend the tours, but it is Afghanistan. Things can change," Lieutenant-General Michel Gauthier said in an interview.

The leader of Canadian Expeditionary Force Command said he was leaving it to Brigadier-General Jon Vance, who takes over Task Force Afghanistan this month, "to do his assessment. I won't try to predict the future. We will adjust and adapt."

One option to enhance security during the vote may be to have a longer overlap than usual of two battle groups during a regular rotation of troops that is presently scheduled to take place in early September. If the combat elements of the rotating battle groups were to both be in Afghanistan during the election, the number of Canadians might spike briefly near 4,000.

There are already 2,830 Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan. That is more troops than at any time since Canada first deployed infantry to Kandahar early in 2002 and fought ferocious battles against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in mountains near the Pakistan border...

Soldiers about to deploy to Kandahar from Valcartier, Que., with a battle group that is built around the Royal 22nd Regiment have spoken privately of having been warned recently that their usual six-month tours might be extended by about a month because of the election.

Some soldiers from Alberta who are part of the battle group that succeeds the Vandoo have speculated that they, too, might be in Afghanistan a little longer than usual.

"If Valcartier has warned its troops, and I don't know if they have, it was eminently sensible," said Lt.-Gen. Gauthier, whose own tour as the first commander of CEFCOM ends after 44 months in May. "We need to be open-minded about this." [Surely the overall commander of forces abroad should know such things--after all any extension would be a major shift in policy.]..

The election is scheduled to occur as Canada is repositioning many of its combat troops from farming districts to the west of Kandahar to the outskirts of Kandahar City and the city itself as part of a NATO drive to bring more security to more heavily populated areas.

The Canadians who are moving closer to Kandahar City are to be replaced by U. S. forces as part of a surge of U. S. forces into southern Afghanistan that President Barack Obama is ordering to help Canadian, British and Dutch troops counter the growing insurgency.

"We have an expectation of more U. S. forces in Kandahar and elsewhere in the south," Lt.-Gen. Gauthier said. "We have been spread too thin. My expectation is that this will allow us to concentrate geographically as we move ahead. There will be a growing focus on the people in and around Kandahar where 75% of the population lives."..

A temporary "thickening" by the CF may be needed because Americans may arrive later than hoped for:

Decisions about withdrawing troops from Iraq and sending more troops to Afghanistan have been delayed until the Pentagon provides President Barack Obama with more detail about the risks and implications of the issues confronting him, according to two senior Pentagon officials.

Both officials, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, have a direct understanding of the discussion regarding troop withdrawals. They said the military is not concerned about the delays, but that there is concern about the deteriorating levels of security in Afghanistan...

There also appears to be a delay in making a decision about sending more troops to Afghanistan, both senior Pentagon officials said.

It is believed that thousands of ground combat Marines, a marine aviation unit and Army special forces could be sent to southern Afghanistan in the weeks ahead [so mainly Marines first, after all]. But for now, the White House is waiting on sending two additional Army brigades until it is nearer to completing a review of its strategy in Afghanistan, the officials said.

Its not clear when that might happen. The White House is now reviewing strategy assessments completed by the military and awaiting the return of Richard Holbrooke, who made his first trip to the region as envoy. The Pentagon had been tentatively set to announce the deployments last week, but both officials said when further discussions took place with the White House, it became clear a longer timeframe was needed.

"There is a desire to further work on the strategy before sending the bulk of the troops," one official said. But the official also underscored the security situation in Afghanistan "grows more dire every day. Everybody understands there is a sense of urgency."

As for that "urgency":

National Security Team Delivers Grim Appraisal of Afghanistan War

MUNICH, Feb. 8 -- President Obama's national security team gave a dire assessment Sunday of the war in Afghanistan, with one official calling it a challenge "much tougher than Iraq" and others hinting that it could take years to turn around.

U.S. officials said more troops were urgently needed, both from America and its NATO allies, to counter the increasing strength of the Taliban and warlords opposed to the central government in Kabul. They also said new approaches were needed to untangle an inefficient and conflicting array of civilian-aid programs that have wasted billions of dollars.

"NATO's future is on the line here," Richard C. Holbrooke, the State Department's special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told attendees at an international security conference here. "It's going to be a long, difficult struggle. . . . In my view, it's going to be much tougher than Iraq." [Here's some recent advice to Mr Holbrooke.]

Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, head of the U.S. Central Command, said the war in Afghanistan "has deteriorated markedly in the past two years" and warned of a "downward spiral of security."..

Update: Related to the above and, amongst other things, command arrangements at Kandahar?

Media Advisory: Media Availability With Chief of the Defence Staff and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

OTTAWA, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Feb. 9, 2009) - A joint media availability between the Chief of the Defence Staff, General Walt Natynczyk, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Admiral Mike Mullen, will be held tomorrow to discuss current Canada-US military relations...

Upperdate: Meanwhile, video of fighting across the border in Pakistan; as Celestial Junk puts it:

Afghanistan can't be at peace without Pakistan defeating the Taliban ... it's simply a geopolitical fact...

Several more videos in the series are here.