Brit A400M update: Seriously screwed!

Worser and worser--Defence of the Realm finds the confirmation (via Haletown):

...tucked into an obscure publication called Hansard – which nobody bothers reading any more – was a tiny little question by Ann Winterton asking for the latest estimate of the in-service date for the A400M. Thus quoth the unfortunate Quentin Davies [Minister for Defence Equipment & Support]:

Airbus Military has announced a series of delays in the development and production of the A400M programme, and has recently indicated that first deliveries to customer nations will be three years after the achievement of first flight of the A400M prototype. Airbus has indicated that first flight will occur no earlier than the second half of 2009, and has also announced a slowdown in its production plans. Early A400M production aircraft will be delivered to some of our partner nations and therefore the first UK delivery would occur at least six months after Airbus delivers the first A400M. This suggests that initial UK deliveries could not start before 2013 and therefore the estimated in-service date of the A400M (defined as acceptance into service of the seventh aircraft) would be 2014.

Hey! Seven years later than the original estimate, with an in-service date now at least three years later than the last estimate of 2011...

Update: The French are fighting furiously to save this giant albatross--or should one say turkey?

France appears ready to pull out all the stops to convince partners that they should agree to renegotiate price, delivery terms and specifications for the A400M, and not stop the troubled multibillion euro initiative.

Meeting with reporters here Feb 10, the chairmen of the French Senate’s foreign affairs, defense and armed forces and finance committees presented a report confirming Airbus warnings last month that the airlifter program could be up to four years late. Combined with indications that the A400M might not meet certain design specifications, notably with respect to weight [emphasis added], the warnings are pushing some partners, in particular the U.K., to threaten to pull out.

Seven European countries have ordered a total of 180 A400Ms, led by Germany (60), France (50), Spain (27) and the U.K. (25).

Delivery of the digital engine control system (FADEC), recently programmed for July, is now expected around October. This means the A400M is unlikely to make its first flight until early 2010 – two years behind the original schedule. Initial deliveries are not expected until late 2012, and perhaps late 2013 – four years later than called for [emphasis added] – if the prime contractor, Airbus, decides to limit production in the first year to allow for maturing design.

Nevertheless, the chairmen said findings indicated that management reshuffles inside EADS/Airbus and within the propulsion team – with Rolls-Royce and Snecma now assuming a lead role – can get the program back on track and that technical hurdles are not insurmountable. EADS officials suggested additional benefit could be realized by separating development of the propulsion system into a separate contract, distinct from that of the aircraft system.

French press reports suggest fixing the program could raise its cost by 5 billion euros ($6.5 billion), the amount that customers have paid out to date for the 20 billion euro undertaking. EADS has provisioned 1.8 billion euros so far for schedule and cost overruns, with lesser amounts coming from other contractors.

But the lawmakers also suggested that abandoning the effort – Europe’s biggest cooperative military undertaking by far – would entail an economic, financial and political cost far outweighing the cost of setting it right. They said they had submitted their findings directly to French President Nicolas Sarkozy with the request that the matter be brought up at the highest political level as soon as European defense procurement agency Occar, which is managing the A400M, finishes its ongoing inquiry into program difficulties. This is expected within a few weeks.

Under the terms of the contract, the seven launch customers can pull out of the deal or seek to renegotiate its terms if delivery is delayed more than 14 months. This provision becomes effective on March 31 [emphasis added].

Committee member Jacques Gautier said France will be forced to resort to various stratagems to meet its own interim airlift needs until the A400M is ready. Among these are to prolong the life of some of its Transalls, where possible; pushing forward the acquisition of two A330s due to be purchased under a forthcoming tanker-transport buy; wet-leasing more An-124s; and acquiring a few Casa C212/235 light transports. Leasing a few Lockheed Martin C130Js or Boeing C-17s [Quelle humilitation! Latest on Boeing plans for C-17 here] is also “not excluded,” he says, “as long as it does not threaten the future of the A400M.”

Via Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs.

Upperdate: More on intensive US usage of C-17s via Colin P.