From NATO's viewpoint...
...the security situation in Afghanistan isn't nearly as dire as some might suggest. Now, don't get me wrong: Graeme Smith has spent more time on the ground in Kandahar than just about any other Canadian journalist, and I respect his opinion. But those of us who haven't been to Afghanistan and seen it with our own eyes must rely on second-hand information, so I figure it's best that we see as much as we can.
This is what NATO has to say:
Do yourself a favour and read the rest.
Graeme Smith says: "When a girl in a school uniform is stopped in downtown Kandahar by a man who asks frightening questions about why she's attending classes, that small act of intimidation does not appear in any statistics." He's right, but that doesn't make the statistics worthless, any more than the lack of statistical backup makes his anecdotal evidence worthless.
The security picture in Afghanistan is a complicated one, and this is one more piece to consider.
This is what NATO has to say:
Our Ops staff did a thorough statistical analysis over a two-year period of hostile activity in all the regions of Afghanistan. The map – declassified for us to use on this blog – shows the real problem areas in red. Those red areas are only 10% of the country’s districts; 70% of the violence in Afghanistan occurred in those red areas.
So the 2006 and 2007 stats are telling us that the insurgency is not spreading across the country as has been written in some reports and reported by some media. And during Sunday’s ISAF news conference, the ISAF spokesperson made a point of telling the media this.
So what do the other colours on the map mean? Brace yourself—this is going to be numbers heavy but the numbers are important.
Do yourself a favour and read the rest.
Graeme Smith says: "When a girl in a school uniform is stopped in downtown Kandahar by a man who asks frightening questions about why she's attending classes, that small act of intimidation does not appear in any statistics." He's right, but that doesn't make the statistics worthless, any more than the lack of statistical backup makes his anecdotal evidence worthless.
The security picture in Afghanistan is a complicated one, and this is one more piece to consider.
posted by Babbling Brooks at 1:26 p.m.
6 Comments:
Some optimists might even say that the intimidation of a young girl while enroute to school is a sign of progress, since under the Taliban there were no schoolgirls.
Call me a glass half-full kind of guy, but if you read Ahmed Rashid's definitive work Taliban, it is hard to rationalize the current lack of security as not being an improvement over overt oppression, totalitarianism, and a general level of psychotic brutality unjustified by the Quran.
I respect Graeme Smith's work and courage and will not make the mistake of dismissing his claims outright. I tend to find more fault with Graeme's editors than I do with Graeme, but perhaps the G & M editors need some perspective.
Great post--I'm sending it to Mr Smith.
Northtea: Good comment. Esp. about the editors.
Mark
Ottawa
I don't underestimate the fact that Paul Koring's name appears on the byline as well as Smith's, to the detriment of the work's credibility, as I see it.
Interestingly, in reading their report, the red zones indicate more than a dozen "hostile incidents" per month. The dark green report zero. The light green report 1 per quarter.
I wonder what a map of the Lower Mainland of BC would look like, with road rage and violent crime reported in a similar fashion?
An interesting project, Shane. I wouldn't know where to begin, but should someone wish to take it up and e-mail me the graphic, I'd be happy to do a post about it!
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 03/04/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.
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