The Torch: The Manley Afstan panel

Conclusions of a submission (pdf) by the Conference of Defence Associations (lots of analysis behind them):

We conclude, therefore, in the strongest possible terms, that it is very much in Afghanistan’s national security interest to help keep the Taliban from regaining control of Kandahar.

A premature pull-out by Canada could hand these enemies of Afghanistan a huge victory, for Kandahar is “Vital Ground” in every sense — militarily, politically, and psychologically, and its loss would undermine all that we and our allies have achieved so far, and result in all of Canada's sacrifices to have been made in vain. We also need to remember that stating an “exit strategy” would be very dangerous, in that it would offer the Taliban the strategic option of simply waiting for us to leave.

We wish to emphasize the importance of supporting NATO in order to avoid a disastrous breakdown of the Alliance over Afghanistan. We have always held NATO to be a vital pillar of Canadian foreign policy, from our role as a founding member of the Alliance, to the present. Moreover, we must remember that this is a UN mandated mission and that a mission failure could seriously affect the credibility of that institution.

In regard to Canada’s contribution in Kandahar Province, the CDA acknowledges that it will need to evolve in form and nature, in large part as a result of the increase in the capacity of the Afghan National Army Brigade in Kandahar to lead in security operations, an improvement made possible through the work of the Operational Mentoring and Liaison Teams.

We believe that this mentoring relationship is one that can only be built up over time as both sides gain greater knowledge of each other, and greater confidence and trust in each other. That knowledge, confidence, and trust has now been established. It must not be broken.

The Conference of Defence Associations is therefore of the view that Canada must remain in Kandahar Province, beyond 2009.

The panel in Afstan:

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - The reality of war was front and centre this week as John Manley wrapped up a visit to Afghanistan as part of his panel's report on the future of Canada's mission in this war-torn country.

Three Canadian soldiers were sent to hospital Tuesday morning after their light armoured vehicle drove over an improvised explosive device...

While in Kabul, the capital, the panel met with President Hamid Karzai and NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

They later visited the northern province of Balkh and, for the last few days, have been in Kandahar.

"There are positive signs and there are negative signs and it's a matter of trying to understand what exactly is happening that we are really struggling with," Manley told reporters at Kandahar Air field in a rare interview since agreeding to chair the panel seven weeks ago.

Manley's group will make a recommendation by the end of January on what Canada should do when its current commitment to the NATO mission expires in 2009.

The options include continuing to train the Afghan army and police so Canada can begin withdrawing its forces in February 2009 or possibly focusing on reconstruction and having forces from another country take over security.

Also being considered is shifting the Canadian security and reconstruction effort to another, safer region in Afghanistan or withdrawing all Canadian military except a minimal force to protect aid workers and diplomats.

"I think we've still got quite a bit of work to do before we're at the point of making a recommendation," said Manley.

"I think all of us have seen things that have helped us a great deal in understanding both the complexity of this country as well as the complexity of some of the issues."..

Manley said the complexity of the mission in Afghanistan will make it difficult to come up with a recommendation.

He said one week gives only a snapshot of what is happening in the country but the information will help form the overall report.

"I don't know what we're going to recommend but what I do know is this has already been Canada's most significant international commitment since the Korean War and we're going to make sure we take the time that is necessary to give the best advice that we can," Manley said...

Manley, like Harper, has said Canada should not abandon its mission in Afghanistan.

But he said that when the final report is complete he wants it to generate genuine and informed debate and not partisan bickering.

"I think Canadians will probably expect their parliamentarians to look at this issue, not from a partisan point of view but from a national interest point of view," he said.

"If we can frame the discussion so it's a little less partisan then we will have contributed something worthwhile," he added.