Monday, July 23, 2007

"Winning in Afghanistan"

A piece in Maclean's by Sean M. Maloney (a professor at the Royal Military College) that's well worth reading, with some excellent combat reporting. Note the role of the Afghan National Army (read that Scott Taylor). An excerpt that reinforces what we've been saying at The Torch:
...The combined effects of last summer's operations in Zharey district, the blunting of the enemy's fall offensive, and the anti-leadership campaign that killed enemy commander Mullah Dadullah, have set the conditions for today's mission...

...Officially, there are 20 confirmed enemy dead, probably more, but the effects of this operation are greater than the body count. An IED cell has been taken down [emphasis added - MC]. It could take the enemy weeks or even months to replace it. There were no civilian casualties. Highway 1 is more secure, for the time being. The Taliban were forced to commit scarce resources to this fight, which can no longer be used against Kandahar city...

Success would soon be overtaken by tragedy. Even as that June 20 battle in Zharey was still raging, in the neighbouring Panjwai district three soldiers from the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry were killed in a massive explosion as their M-Gator vehicle hit a cleverly laid mine stack. Was this designed to draw resources away from the Howz-e Madad fight? It's unclear. But it was the biggest single-day death toll for Canadians since April 8, and it would be the exclusive focus of media reports from Afghanistan on that day. The success of the morning's operation in Zharey would be completely ignored [emphasis added]...

...I met a group of friends for chai in Kandahar city, and asked Rashid, whom I have known for five years, what was qualitatively different. (The names of the Afghans have been changed at their request. The fear of retribution by the Taliban remains real.) "Kandahar seems more secure than even last year," Rashid said. "Families aren't leaving like they were. There are more children around. I really notice the police presence, especially their vehicles and the checkpoints. We know they're still pretty corrupt, there are still bombings, but there is at least a feeling of security." Mohammad interjects as the chai is passed around: "The big threat last summer from the districts west of the city is gone. It is not looming like it was. We can get on with our lives. There isn't this feeling of imminent peril."..

...the more critical battle -- the enemy's fight to destroy Canadian resolve -- will continue. The only way the Taliban can succeed is to generate doubt and fear in Canada, and hope that those Canadians opposed to helping the Afghan people are able to generate a consensus for withdrawal. The only tool the Taliban have right now to accomplish this is a mass-casualty-producing attack like the one that killed six soldiers on July 4. There's little doubt that the Taliban know that Canadian sentiment is wavering, and that such attacks affect public opinion. More importantly, they're aware that support for the mission is weakest in Quebec, and that a battalion from Quebec is on its way. The anticipated deployment of those troops and the divisions in that province over this war (like divisions in Quebec over other wars in Canadian history) will not be lost on the al-Qaeda-funded analysts supporting the Taliban war effort.

Given the improving socio-economic situation in Kandahar province, withdrawing now would be like retreating from the beachhead in Normandy immediately after landing. Canada has sacrificed too much to pull out when those incremental measures we've talked about for two years are just starting to have an effect.
Certainly not what one would think from watching CTV or CBC. Or reading the major media most of the time. Doesn't fit with inside Ottawa political bloodsport.

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