Afstan: Why NATO members have to show commitment for the long haul

Afghans is the south are taking, with good reason, a pragmatic attitude:

The vast majority of people in Kandahar province remain sitting on the fence as coalition forces and the Taliban slug it out, Canada’s battle group commander in Afghanistan says.

Lt.-Col. Rob Walker said Friday the Afghan people are waiting to see if the coalition can get rid of the insurgents and whether the international community can deliver promised aid before they will openly support the Afghan government.

“They can’t put themselves at risk because if you overtly support the government you could be killed,” said Walker of the Gagetown, N.B.-based 2 Battalion, Royal Canadian Regiment.

“Eighty per cent of the people are just sitting there and want to get on with their daily lives.”

Walker said the high number of uncommitted Afghans doesn’t mean there is growing support for the Taliban. In fact, there is evidence to suggest the insurgency is starting to lose steam, he said.

Since Operation Achilles began almost three weeks ago to clear Taliban out of northern Helmand province, insurgents have only fought a few stand-up battles with coalition forces – including some minor skirmishes with Canadian troops in the Kandahar region.

Instead, the Taliban have resorted to what the military calls “asymmetrical attacks” – suicide bombers [see this nice bit of imagination at Celestial Junk], roadside bombs and shoot-and-skoot tactics...

In Kandahar province, there has been little insurgent activity in the Panjwaii district where Canadian and Afghan troops defeated Taliban forces in hard fighting last summer and fall.

The Canadians and Afghan are pushing into neighbouring Zharey district, establishing police checkpoints and roadblocks to bring order to the area.

Canadian and Afghan troops have also been patrolling and holding meetings with village leaders in the Maywand district along the Helmand border in support of Operation Achilles. The aim is to cut Taliban supply lines and infiltration routes and to deny the insurgents any community support...

In Helmand province, Afghan National Army units have been attacking Taliban strongholds north of the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah, supported by NATO air strikes, coalition officials said.

British, Dutch and American ground forces are supporting the offensive.

The goal of Operation Achilles is to create a secure environment that will enable the Afghan government to develop northern Helmand. The area’s economy is now heavily dependent on the opium poppy trade.

The key project is a plan to fix and upgrade the Kajaki Dam to provide more electricity to the region and improve the water supply and irrigation...

Operation Achilles is to eventually involve more than 4,500 NATO troops and nearly 1,000 Afghan soldiers, the coalition says.

The outcome of such operations and the economic development they are supposed to bring will be closely watched by ordinary Afghans, Walker said.

“They are in a wait-and-see mode. Will the government of Afghanistan come through for them on the promises they made?” he said.

“The jury is still out on that. Will the international community have the perseverance to stay the course? And in Canada, we’ve only committed ourselves to February 2009 [emphasis added].

So, security first, start the development and (one must hope) establish the good governance. It ain't going to be easy.