Afstan: US intelligence views

Outgoing Director of National Intelligence Negroponte:

He also warned of the successes that a resurgent Taliban is having in Afghanistan in its attempts to destabilize the government of President Hamid Karzai.

The intelligence chief said the Taliban “probably” [emphasis added] does not directly threaten the viability of Mr. Karzai’s government. At the same time, he said the Taliban is achieving more limited goals of impeding economic development in southern and eastern Afghanistan and undermining popular support for the government in Kabul.

More:

In his testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Negroponte said that ''eliminating the safe haven that the Taliban and other extremists have found in Pakistan's tribal areas is not sufficient to end the insurgency in Afghanistan, but it is necessary.''..

Now, taken literally, that means: a) if the havens are not eliminated then the insurgency will not end; and b) even eliminating them will not be enough. Pretty bleak to me.

Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Maples:

The DIA believes attacks in Afghanistan from the Taliban-led insurgency will increase this spring. ''Nearly five years after the Taliban's fall, many Afghans expected the situation to be better by now and are beginning to blame President (Hamid) Karzai for the lack of greater progress,'' Maples said...