Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Afstan and opium

It really does seem to me that this is the most sensible way to deal with the problem--eradication efforts will only hurt the anti-Taliban struggle.
...NATO is fighting a war to eradicate opium from Afghanistan. Allegedly, the goals this time around are different. According to the British government, Afghanistan's illicit drug trade poses the "gravest threat to the long term security, development, and effective governance of Afghanistan," particularly since the Taliban is believed to be the biggest beneficiary of drug sales. Convinced that this time they are doing the morally right thing, Western governments are spending hundreds of millions of dollars bulldozing poppy fields, building up counternarcotics squads and financing alternative crops in Afghanistan. Chemical spraying may begin as early as this spring...

...At the moment, Afghanistan's opium exports account for somewhere between one-third and two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product, depending on whose statistics you believe. The biggest producers are in the southern provinces where the Taliban is at its strongest, and no wonder: Every time a poppy field is destroyed, a poor person becomes poorer -- and more likely to support the Taliban against the Western forces who wrecked his crops. Yet little changes: The amount of land dedicated to poppy production grew last year by more than 60 percent, as The Post reported last month...

Yet by far the most depressing aspect of the Afghan poppy crisis is that it exists at all -- because it doesn't have to. To see what I mean, look at the history of Turkey, where once upon a time the drug trade also threatened the country's political and economic stability...

...in 1974 the Turks, with American and U.N. support, tried a different tactic. They began licensing poppy cultivation for the purpose of producing morphine, codeine and other legal opiates. Legal factories were built to replace the illegal ones. Farmers registered to grow poppies, and they paid taxes. You wouldn't necessarily know this from the latest White House drug strategy report-- which devotes several pages to Afghanistan but doesn't mention Turkey -- but the U.S. government still supports the Turkish program, even requiring U.S. drug companies to purchase 80 percent of what the legal documents euphemistically refer to as "narcotic raw materials" from the two traditional producers, Turkey and India.

Why not add Afghanistan to this list? The only good arguments against doing so -- as opposed to the silly, politically correct "just say no" arguments -- are technical: that the same weak or nonexistent bureaucracy will be no better at licensing poppy fields than it has been at destroying them, or that some of the raw material will still fall into the hands of the drug cartels. Yet some of these issues can be resolved, by building processing factories at the local level and working within local power structures. And even if the program succeeds in stopping only half of the drug trade, a huge chunk of Afghanistan's economy will still emerge from the gray market; the power of the drug barons will be reduced; and, most important, Western money will have been visibly spent helping Afghan farmers survive, instead of destroying their livelihoods...

2 Comments:

Blogger Carol Halstead said...

lolqswqtI enjoyed this very intelligent article on how to deal constructively with the Afghan opium . It makes a lot of sense to support the farmers by using their crops in a way that helps suffering people around the world, rather than spending millions destroying them. Yes, do start supporting alternative cash crops, but realize that's a project that will take time. We should follow the Turkish system: let the farmers register their crops, and pay taxes on their profits. I have travelled in both countries and have operated a sheep farm in British Columbia. I wish NATO would stop throwing their money at basically destructive projects.

Regards,
Old Sheep Farmer

1:05 p.m., January 16, 2007  
Blogger Babbling Brooks said...

I have only one concern with this. If the farmers are taking loans from the Taliban for future production (ie. before the crops are even planted), and the Taliban are killing those who don't produce for them, is this really such a simple solution to the problem of illegal opium production?

Don't get me wrong: I think the approach suggested is probably the best way to handle the issue, but I don't think it's as straightforward as some might suggest. The Taliban profit from the trade being illicit, and will fight hard against efforts to legitimize production.

For example, it doesn't take much imagination to find a work-around: if the Afghan gov't legalized and registered poppy production, simply tithe the farmers - 20% of their crop, in exchange for their personal safety and that of their family. Understating yields to gov't regulators might also reduce the farmer's tax load depending on how taxes work in Afghanistan.

From the Taliban's point of view, just jack the price of the illicit opium you sell due to the new shortage, and also start hijacking it from the factories, warehouses, or even directly from the farmer's own stores.

Again, I'm not saying this isn't a good idea, just that it's not as easy as it might sound.

1:17 p.m., January 16, 2007  

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