The Torch: Afstan: Dutch courage

Looks like for real. Further to this post,

Afstan: Prime Minister as, er, brave (or is that principled?) as his Dutch counterpart?

the CBC's Brian Stewart goes into an issue that most of our major media appear pretty determined to avoid (via Blue News):

Afghan pullout
The Dutch, it seems, are having second thoughts. Will we?

For more than a year now, the Canadian government has been relying on the Dutch to help ease our own military exit from Afghanistan next year [see end of this post].

The Dutch are scheduled to start pulling out this fall, nine months ahead of us, and have been seen as a comforting advance guard.

But when Canadians officials, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper, were in Holland last week for the Second World War ceremonies, they were clearly told that the Dutch may now dodge such a controversial advance role.

In fact, there is now growing sentiment that the Netherlands will leave behind military or police trainers, along with hundreds of combat troops to protect them.

In other words, the Dutch will do what Harper is adamant Canada won't — bow to urgent appeals from NATO and especially Washington for a continued military presence in Afghanistan...

It...brings with it a chilling message for our prime minister: that the Dutch are clearly concerned about some kind of NATO-wide opprobrium cascading down on those nations who want to leave the battlefield at this critical juncture.

After all, this change of heart is really quite dramatic (and likely disappointing for Harper). It was only this spring that the Dutch coalition government fell upon the suggestion that the Afghan mission be continued...

But the conservative Balkenende is now trying to build new alliances to return him to power and the biggest surprise in recent days is that both the Green party and a moderate liberal alliance known as D66 have reversed themselves and now favour a significant Dutch training mission backed by hundreds of combat troops.

Self-respect

When I was in Holland last week for the liberation ceremonies marking the end of the European phase of the Second World War [more here], I found Dutch military and political officials were confident of such a continued role.

There was a general feeling that the Netherlands is too acutely sensitive about its image for dependability to leave entirely.

"We know other countries question our lack of aggression in Afghanistan and think we're too soft," observed Dutch military historian Christ Clep...

...there's little doubt the main Dutch pullout of 2,000 troops from Uruzgan province will seriously disrupt allied operations in the key battle areas of the south and Western forces are letting the Dutch know about it.

Dutch troops serve alongside 1,000 Australian troops in Uruzgan and are positioned just north of Canada's nearly 3,000-strong Kandahar mission.

The Aussies have made it plain they are none too pleased with the Netherland's planned pullout in August 2010. In this war, 2,000 allies are hard to replace, especially experienced ones...

The Dutch are clearly hoping to take some of the sting out of their planned pullout by offering to help with what the American's insist is a desperate need for thousands of professional trainers for the fast-growing Afghan army and police [more here].

As these trainers will require a few hundred troops, at least, to protect them [well, if they go out in the field mentoring], this means the Dutch will still have a military presence in Afghanistan for some years yet and the Canadians will thus become the first to leave completely.

Here at home, the Liberal opposition has hinted it might support a training role for our troops after 2011, and some Conservatives privately support such a function as well [more here].

But Prime Minister Harper has been staunchly single-minded in his refusal to leave any soldiers behind.

It is possible these recent Dutch warnings about the risks of total withdrawal may influence the PM. But I doubt he'll be moved by the views of the Dutch, or by any doubts within his own party.

One senses that Harper has formed his own steadily darkening view of Afghanistan's prospects.

We don't know how dark his view is. But it's a war, once considered vital to Canada's own national security interests, that he just doesn't want to be part of any more.