Why we fought in Afstan/Afghan-Canadian Update

To enable Pakistan effectively to return as the predominant power, as it was when the Talibs were in power? Lovely prospect. But with our 2011 military pull-out in view Canada will have about zero influence regarding future geopolitical developments (not that the government would have much idea what to do with any such influence). From Ahmed Rashid (links in original):

...The issue is complicated by the Pakistani military's determination to guide or even dominate the peace process rather than leave it to the Afghans.

Pakistan holds many of the cards: Taliban leaders and their families live in Pakistan and are in close touch with the military and its Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI). Some Taliban allies, such as the network led by Jalaluddin Haqqani, are even closer to the ISI. Although the military is finally hunting down the Pakistani Taliban in the Northwest tribal areas, the Afghan Taliban and Pakistani extremists in Punjab province are being left alone.

The January arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the No. 2 Taliban leader, in Karachi and the unexplained arrests and subsequent freeing of several other leading Taliban figures have demonstrated to Kabul and Washington the Pakistani military's clout.

Karzai and most Afghans fear that if Washington waits too long to decide about talking to the Taliban, control will fall to the ISI as happened in the 1980s and 1990s -- when Washington abandoned Afghanistan to Russia and Pakistan but the ISI played favorites and was unable to end the civil war among Afghan factions.

Almost all Afghans, including Karzai's Pashtun supporters, the non-Pashtun Northern Alliance and even the Taliban oppose any major role for the ISI, as do most regional powers, particularly India, Iran, Russia and the five Central Asian republics.

When Karzai visited Islamabad on March 10 to find out why his interlocutor Mullah Baradar was arrested, he was, according to Afghan officials, bluntly told by Pakistan's generals that the Americans are bound to leave and that if he wanted Pakistani help resolving issues with the Taliban, he would first have to close Indian consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad. Pakistani officials deny threatening Karzai and insist that they want a peaceful and stable Afghanistan once the Americans leave. But other sources have confirmed that such ultimatums were delivered.

Pakistan is convinced that Karzai is allowing India to undermine Pakistan's western border regions [including Baluchistan, see a typical paranoid Pak view here--though India is an enemy adversary] through its four consulates in Afghanistan and has demanded that Afghanistan close the consulates.

For a sovereign Afghanistan, this is an impossible request, but it is just the opening gambit in a looming test of wills. Pakistan's maneuvers have prompted India to try reactivating its 1990s alliance with Iran, Russia and Central Asia, which supported the former Northern Alliance in a civil war against the Pakistan-backed Taliban regime.

Pakistan's military has virtually taken control of foreign policy and strategic decision making from the civilian government. Thus Pakistan's foreign policy reflects the military's obsession with India...

Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist, is most recently the author of "Descent Into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia." His book "Taliban" was updated and reissued this month.

It is worth keeping in mind that Mr Rashid is in the end Pakistani, with all that implies regarding attitudes towards India--from last September:

Some AfPak constraints, or, the Indian elephant in the room

Also related, from Foreign Policy's "AfPak Daily brief":

...
Afghan President Hamid Karzai is in India today meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other Indian officials to discuss a host of issues including the security of Indian workers in Afghanistan, talks with the Taliban, and Indian aid to Afghanistan (Guardian, Pajhwok, AFP). The AP describes India and Pakistan's competition over influence in Afghanistan, and a senior adviser to the Afghan Foreign Ministry commented wearily, "We don't want to be forced to choose between India and Pakistan" (AP). Al-Jazeera reports that a Pakistani army officer was among 16 people arrested recently in Kabul on suspicion of planning suicide attacks, which Pakistan denied (AJE)...

And the Paks surely are not happy about the presence of the paramilitary Indo-Tibetan Border Police in Afstan, see penultimate para here:

AfPak--and India: New great games

Update: Whilst at home our political game ain't very great:

Ending Afghanistan's Agony: "Our Afghan Comrades Speak Out."

...our Afghan comrades are clearly annoyed with the 'Never you mind, dears, we bigshots have everything under control" approach to the question of Canada and Afghanistan Post-2011. It was a bit peculiar for Bob Rae to leave the impression that he was leaping to the defence of what Afghan-Canadians consider to be the worst aspects of the Conservative government's handling of the Afghanistan file - its opacity, its equivocation, its timidity and its ambiguity. Rae is as decent and competent a Liberal as you'll find in Ottawa. He should know that nudge-and-wink assurances of backroom horsetrading aren't going to mollify Afghanistan's friends. This is vital public policy. It goes straight to the matter of what kind of country Canada is. It's an issue that demands open public debate, and political leadership...