The Torch: Afstan: US takes charge for rough times ahead (note Brits at end)

NATO falling into line--what choice did members have since most aren't willing to fight?

NATO backs US shake-up in Afghan command

* Changes based on Iraq model

* Aim to improve efficiency amid troop surge

* Gates sees opportunity to turn tide (Recasts throughout with news conferences)

NATO on Friday backed a U.S. shake-up of military command in Afghanistan, as well as plans to step up training of Afghan forces, and Washington said it saw the chance of turning the tide in the war within a year.

The United States has named U.S. Army General Stanley McChrystal to overall command of U.S., NATO and allies forces in Afghanistan, with a deputy to run day-to-day military operations and another to oversee training.

The structure draws heavily on U.S. experience in Iraq.

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said defence ministers from the 28-nation NATO military alliance backed the plan at a meeting in Brussels.

"The logic is clear, because the mission has now grown to over 60,000 and it will keep growing," he said of the NATO-led component of the international military presence. "There is an ever greater requirement for coordination."

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who has urged European allies to step up their commitments after a big increase in U.S. troop numbers, said allies were now playing an increasingly important role and looking to step up their commitments [that's, er, diplomatic].

He said insurgent activity had increased year after year and heavy fighting could be expected in the coming year [see below], but added:

"I think that with the additional forces, and all of the other things we are doing...we have the chance to turn the tide of that momentum during the course of the next year."

Washington has increased its presence to 56,000 troops, from about 32,000 in late 2008, and expects a rise to some 68,000 by autumn. This is in addition to some 33,000 troops from NATO and partner countries.

ELECTION REINFORCEMENTS

De Hoop Scheffer said ministers had confirmed plans to send 8-10,000 troops to protect an Aug. 20 presidential election and to deploy NATO Airborne Warning and Control aircraft to help deal with greater air traffic coming with big troop increases.

They also agreed to implement a coordinated NATO training mission aimed at building up the Afghan army and police to more than 200,000 personnel...

De Hoop Scheffer said the international effort in Afghanistan faced "real challenges", citing the elections, insurgent violence, and slow progress in reconstruction and development efforts. "Meeting them will not be easy," he said.

He said he hoped that countries sending more troops for the elections would agree to let them stay on [emphasis added, good luck for much success with that] and also called for greater commitments to fund to finance Afghan forces.

This has currently received only about 24 million euros in contributions and another 221 million euros pledged for running costs of the Afghan security forces -- well short of the $2 billion a year that will be needed.

...
To soothe European worries about an American takeover of the NATO campaign, General McChrystal will retain the British deputy commander of the alliance’s mission in Afghanistan, Lt. Gen. Jim Dutton.

But diplomats say the reorganization of the Afghanistan command reflects the reality of United States dominance of the military campaign there...

NATO’s training mission in Afghanistan will be led by Maj. Gen. Richard P. Formica, who is in charge of the Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan, the American unit coordinating the training.

Reconstruction activities will be the responsibility of General Dutton, the British deputy commander, a NATO diplomat said [i.e. the Americans will be taking full charge of military operations]...

But Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan is not under ISAF, it's under Gen. McChrystal in his other hat as commander of US Forces - Afghanistan, reporting to Gen. Petraeus at US Central Command (see Update here for a Canadian angle to CSCT-A). So is the NATO training mission now effectively under CENTCOM and not NATO HQ? Still unity of command confusion though things seem to be shaking out bit by bit.

As for the way forward:

Petraeus: 'Tough Months' Lie Ahead in Afghan War

Violence in Afghanistan last week reached its highest levels since the U.S.-led overthrow of the Taliban-ruled government in 2001, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. Central Command, said yesterday.

Petraeus outlined an ambitious counterinsurgency strategy that will involve sending tens of thousands more U.S. troops into Afghanistan's "hot spots" -- Taliban insurgent sanctuaries in the south and east -- but predicted "tough months ahead" in the Afghanistan war.

"There is no question that the situation has deteriorated" in Afghanistan, said Petraeus, who oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East and Central Asia. "This has to be reversed."

Two-thirds of all the attacks in Afghanistan are concentrated in about 10 percent of the country's districts [emphasis added], areas where more than 20,000 new U.S. soldiers and Marines are flowing in to pursue insurgents and provide greater security for Afghans, Petraeus said at a conference here of the Center for a New American Security, a defense think tank...

The strategy draws upon, but does not attempt to duplicate, lessons from the troop "surge" in Iraq, where attacks have dropped from 160 a day at the peak of the fighting in 2007 to about 10 to 15 a day during the past six months, he said.

In one significant difference, Petraeus said that in combating the largely rural insurgency of Afghanistan, it will not be possible for U.S. forces to move into neighborhoods the same way they did in Iraqi cities.

"You don't live among the people in Afghanistan," he said. "First of all, there's no empty houses. Second, the villages particularly in the rural areas tend to be small." Instead, he said, U.S. troops will establish outposts on high ground from which they can oversee nearby villages as well as roads leading in and out [emphasis added].

This approach, which Petraeus called both "culturally and operationally correct," will reduce the likelihood that the presence of U.S. forces will draw the fighting into rural communities, which would lead to more civilian casualties.

Afghan security forces must be significantly expanded in order to hold territory cleared of insurgents, he said, echoing other senior military officers who in recent weeks have stated that the Afghan National Army and police forces need to increase their ranks well beyond the planned strengths of 134,000 for the army and 86,000 for the police.

The military training command in Afghanistan [under CENTCOM, see above] is analyzing what the new targets for the army and police forces should be, Petraeus said, adding that "the bottom line is, it is many more than this."..

As for increasing violence:

Insurgent violence in Afghanistan has accelerated sharply alongside the arrival of new U.S. troops, reaching its highest level since 2001 just last week, U.S. officials said on Thursday.

Insurgent attacks soared 59 percent to 5,222 incidents from January through May, compared with 3,283 attacks in the first five months of 2008, according to U.S. military officials and excerpts of a report by NATO's International Security Assistance Force obtained by Reuters.

That is more than double the growth rate for violence in Afghanistan between the same months in 2007 and 2008, when military officials estimate insurgent attacks rose about 25 percent. All told, insurgent violence climbed 33 percent in 2008, they said...

The ISAF report showed a 78 percent jump in attacks from January through May in southern Afghanistan [emphasis added], where most of the additional U.S. troops are headed.

Attacks climbed 41 percent in eastern Afghanistan, which lies across the border from militant safe havens in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

ISAF said attacks were also 73 percent higher in western Afghanistan, where the U.S. military has been embroiled in a controversy over civilian deaths that occurred during U.S. air strikes in Farah province in early May.

The report said direct-fire attacks rose 61 percent in the first five months of 2009, while attacks employing roadside bombs known as improvised explosive devices rose 64 percent.

Right now the Brits are bearing the brunt of increased violence in the south (not that our media bother noticing):

Defence chiefs fear bloody summer in Helmand
Military commanders fear a bloody summer ahead in Afghanistan with the Taliban focusing attacks on troops in Helmand province.

Senior defence sources said they had already seen an surge in assaults by militants and were bracing themselves for worse to come.

Documents released by the Ministry of Defence show that there has been 73 per cent increase in insurgent attacks coupled with a 78 per cent increase in coalition deaths over the last year.

The violence in Helmand is now three times greater than the next most volatile province, latest official figures show. On average there are almost 12 insurgent attacks a day in the province compared with four in Kandahar [emphasis added] and less than on in Kabul.

"The Taliban's principle military effort is directed at Helmand," a senior defence source said.

He added that "given the intensity of the counter insurgency campaign" the extra 12,000 American forces [US Marines] arriving in Helmand were "extremely welcome".

There has already been a rise in British fatalities with 12 deaths last month [emphasis added] making it the second worst month since the mission began in Helmand in 2006. The British have suffered 66 deaths in the last year alone compared with a total of 166 since 2002...

There is also a growing feeling among the military that if the domestic economic position worsens the Government might attempt to scale down troop numbers

Downing Street has agreed to just 700 extra soldiers to cover the period around the presidential elections on Aug 20 rather than the 2,000 permanent troops requested by British commanders...