DND's Reports on Plans and Priorities 2009-2010: Wow. Not.

Here are the documents. Jack Granatstein actually wrote about this over a month and a half ago (see this post: '"The Canadian Forces: Stuck in neutral"/CF future strength; major capital projects'), but the sad realities seem worth repeating. For some reason this CP story thinks it has a revelation:

Forces beef-up to take 20 years

It will be 2028 before Canada’s thinly-stretched and overworked military reaches the modest expansion goals set for it last year by the Conservative government, federal budget documents reveal.

And even that lengthy timeline is optimistic, given the challenges the army, navy and air force have keeping people in uniform, says the recently released National Defence reports on plans and priorities for 2009-10.

"It is significant to note that the rate of growth depicted below cannot be assured, as strategies to address recruiting and retention challenges are not yet mature enough to guarantee success," say the documents, which lay out charts to project the expansion.

The thought that it will take 19 years to add roughly 5,000 full-time — or regular force — and 3,000 reservists to the ranks has critics and military observers aghast.

The goal of creating a standing force of 70,000 regulars and 30,000 part-time soldiers was set last year in the Conservative government’s much-hyped Canada First Defence Strategy, which also pledged to give the military scheduled budget increases [more on the "Strategy" here].

But that document, which itemized a list of new warships, aircraft and armoured vehicles the government intends to buy, was hazy on a specific expansion timeline.

The latest budget was more clear, saying that given future economic uncertainties the growth expectations were "prudent."

A spokesman for Defence Minister Peter MacKay defended the expansion goals.

"We’re on pace to meet that target," said Jay Paxton, in a email reply to questions about the effect of the go-slow approach.

Paxton wouldn’t explain why the government chose the two-decade strategy, what effect it would have on the existing force, and whether the decision was guided by funding concerns.

The Conservatives — elected in 2006 on a platform that promised to expand the regular forces to 75,000 and the reserves to 35,000 [see Update here, they were still promising 75,000 in 2007] — were forced into an embarrassing retreat from those numbers when their budget failed to put enough money into military personnel.

Liberal Senator Colin Kenny, the chairman of the upper chamber’s security and defence committee, said the new timeline makes a mockery of the Conservative pledge to rebuild the Forces.

"It’s absolutely astonishing," he said in an interview as he thumbed through the detailed budget documents.

"They haven’t given us year-by-year on that chart, but it works out to 280 people a year."

National Defence estimates it spends $150 million in lifetime costs for every 1,000 soldiers, sailors and aircrew added to the ranks.

Kenny said the Conservatives are not prepared to swallow the cost of expanding the military faster in order to give relief to soldiers, exhausted by multiple deployments to war-ravaged Afghanistan.

It is those repeated calls to duty that have contributed to the military’s biggest problem — retention.

The current strategic assessments prepared by the chiefs of army, air force and navy — obtained by The Canadian Press — paint a grim picture in each branch about the critical shortage of personnel in key areas.

"The Afghanistan mission is particularly taxing on Army capabilities," wrote Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie in his annual review. "Last year approximately 12,000 soldiers were training for the Afghan mission, deployed overseas or returning home [more on this from Lt.-Gen. Leslie here]."

Now note this: the strength of the regular CF will actually decline slightly over the next three years:

Section III: Supplementary Information
TABLE A: MILITARY (REGULAR FORCE) BY PROGRAM ACTIVITY

Program Activity	Forecast FTEs 2008-2009	Planned FTEs 2009–2010	Planned FTEs 2010–2011	Planned FTEs 2011–2012
Generate and Sustain Relevant, Responsive and Effective Combat-Capable Integrated Forces	55,414	55,618	55,716	54,318
Conduct Operations	10,385	10,736	10,857	10,900
Contribute to Canadian Government, Society and the International Community	2,649	2,738	2,769	2,782
Total	66,448	69,092	69,342	68,0002

Source: Vice-Chief of the Defence Staff Group / Chief Military Personnel

Notes:

1. Figures represent Vote 1 and Vote 5 Regular Forces.
2. This number reflects Regular Force Planned Total Strength. Current fiscal framework limits Regular Force expansion up to 68,000 by fiscal year 2011-2012. This strategic limit does not include personnel seconded to other government departments (OGD) and Project Management Personnel Resources (PMPR) paid under Vote 5 projects...

Here's what the "Canada First Defence Strategy" said in May 2008:

...
This first step forward for the Canada First Defence Strategy included the announced procurements of:

* Strategic Airlift
* Tactical Airlift
* Medium- to heavy-lift helicopters
* Joint Support Ships
* Medium-sized logistic trucks
* Arctic Off-Shore Patrol Ships
* Leopard II Tanks

As well as the:

* Modernization of the Halifax Class Frigates
* Establishment of a deep water docking and refueling facility in Nanisivik...

As for those "announced procurements" look at what the current document says:

...
Planned Capital Acquisition

...the Government is procuring C-130J Hercules tactical lift aircraft and has announced possible plans [emphasis added] to acquire a Medium- to Heavy-Lift Helicopter (MHLH) capability [more here on that saga], replenishment ships [why no longer called Joint Support Ships--capabilities to be reduced?], a fleet of medium logistics trucks, Leopard 2 tanks and Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ships [see previous link].

In accordance with the CFDS, the planned acquisitions highlighted below will provide a solid foundation for the renewal of the CF’s core equipment platforms. The CF will thus be enabled to conduct operations more effectively and safely, both at home and abroad. Planned acquisitionsinclude:

* Destroyers and Frigates replacement;
* Fixed Wing Search and Rescue Aircraft;
* Next-Generation Fighter Aircraft;
* Maritime Patrol Aircraft; and
* Land Combat Vehicles and Systems...

Some acquisitions would appear to be rather less certain than they were a year ago. As for the budget, from an earlier post:

The Conservative government's January 2009 budget

As far as I can see the words "defence" and "Canadian Forces" do not appear in the budget. Some conservatives...