Dutch success at Uruzgan a particular case

Babbling has already dealt with the supposed Dutch model here and here. More now from the Dutch (via GAP):

Dutch Recognize the Limits of Their Afghan Approach

THE HAGUE - As President Barack Obama tries to change the course of the war in Afghanistan, the Dutch Army's gains there against the Taliban have captured the attention of his advisers. Temper your enthusiasm, say the Dutch.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton praised the Netherlands-led mission last week as an inspiration for the mix of military muscle and economic development at the heart of Mr. Obama's new strategy. But officials in The Hague say the formula their forces have used to stabilize the south-central province of Uruzgan might not work across the rest of the country.

Though ''elements of what we're doing can be copied, replicated in other provinces,'' it is impossible to use the model where violent extremists are more numerous and hard-core, says Peter Mollema, a former top Dutch diplomat in Afghanistan. Mr. Mollema and his military counterpart were invited to Washington two months ago to brief Gen. David H. Petraeus, head of U.S. Central Command, and administration officials. ''We told them yes, we think civil-military cooperation is essential,'' Mr. Mollema says. ''But this is a slow and incremental process, and there is no magic wand.''

The Dutch have focused on winning over and protecting the local population rather than seeking out the enemy, and transferring decision-making and responsibility for security and development to residents, the Afghan Army and the police. With improved public safety, men who formed militias or allied with the Taliban for protection have a reason to lay down their arms, the Dutch say.

''We tell them, 'If you want a well, we deliver the shovels, but you dig it yourselves,''' said Lt. Bart Noordzij during a break from a recent training exercise in central Holland that included role-playing outreach to local tribes. ''If you want to run a shop, we'll make sure you get education in how to run a shop, but you have to open it yourself.''..

The Netherlands is among 42 nations that contribute coalition forces to Afghanistan. Its Uruzgan mission has almost 2,000 soldiers, among them reservists with civilian expertise and 12 diplomats, including a civil servant with as much authority as the top soldier.

Though the Dutch have won over villagers from Taliban control and enjoyed the only dip in enemy attacks in southern Afghanistan last year [emphasis added], they are set to pull out in 2010. As in other European nations, public support has waned as the war has dragged into an eighth year...

Nineteen Dutch have died there; the latest was a soldier killed on Monday in a rocket attack on the Netherlands' main military base in Uruzgan. The total is a small fraction of the losses for British and Canadian troops in neighboring provinces.

[chief of defense"]General van Uhm believes as strongly as ever in what the Dutch and other coalition partners are trying to accomplish - and what the Obama administration wants to replicate - by marrying the ''three D's of defense, diplomacy and development.''

''If you want to get Afghanistan back on its feet again, the military alone will never give you that result,'' says the general, whose conference table at defense headquarters in The Hague is surrounded by photos of Dutch soldiers and diplomats alongside Afghan security forces and aid workers.

Not everyone is convinced that keeping soldiers in population centers instead of having them hunt down insurgents is the right paradigm.

''The Dutch model is essentially defensive'' and works only because the Taliban do not feel threatened by Dutch aid projects, says Gilles Dorronsoro, an Afghanistan scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. If the Dutch left, ''the place could be taken by the Taliban in a matter of hours.''

Col. Leo Beulen, head of operations for the Dutch Defense Ministry, says the majority of fighters identified as Taliban are simply peasants who make alliances to survive. He believes Mr. Obama is right that many militants can be reconciled without firing a shot...