Five percent solution for the Army at Kandahar/Security outlook in south

This looks like returning to a more traditional structure of an infantry battalion, with useful results:

Small rise in troops to create big effect: Forces
More soldiers to patrol hostile Afghan territory

Canada hopes to significantly raise its combat capability in Afghanistan by slightly increasing the number of troops it has patrolling hostile territory every day.

The change, which begins with the impending arrival of troops from the Quebec-based Royal 22nd Regiment, will only see the combat force increase by about five per cent, but there "may be a 30-per-cent benefit," [emphasis added] said Lt.-Col. Mike Patrick, who is chief of operations for Canada's Joint Task Force Afghanistan.

"What the expansion, small as it is, allows us is for synergy to take place."

Until now, Canada's combat forces in Kandahar have been built around a battle group -- an infantry battalion that comprises two companies. Those companies have each fielded four rifle platoons.

Under the new arrangement, the Van Doo, who will replace troops from the Petawawa, Ont.-based Royal Canadian Regiment, are to field three companies made up of three platoons each plus a company headquarters.

There are about 3,000 Canadian troops in Afghanistan and about one-third are members of the fighting force.

"It means more boots on the ground," said Patrick, adding "I think that it is a change for the better.

"The chief reason is that it allows greater co-ordination of resources on the ground to have a greater impact ... That is important in a counter-insurgency."

More troops in hostile territory also raises the potential for casualties. Canada has suffered 112 deaths in the Afghan mission since it began in 2002 [the reporter would write that, wouldn't he?]...

Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie, commander of the army, has said many times that Canadian troops have been stretched by the constant demands of the Afghan mission. While one battle group is forward deployed for six months, another is training at home to replace it while a third is recovering from its tour [emphasis added].

The Van Doo are to be followed by a battle group [Task Force 3-08] built around an Alberta-based battalion of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry.

One of the key assignments during the Van Doo's six months in Kandahar will be to provide security during national elections slated for August.

"It is like a Canadian election, but the stakes are much higher," said Patrick, who is not directly involved in election security preparations by the Task Force. "The question about the elections is what we may be asked to do -- and that we don't know yet."

Meanwhile, the Dutch general in charge of Regional Command South sees a tough year ahead:

NATO commander sees Afghan security gains in 2010

The arrival of 12,000 extra U.S. combat troops in southern Afghanistan this summer [see here and here] is not likely to bring major security gains to the volatile region until 2010, a top NATO commander said on Friday [see also here and here for the US Army combat aviation brigade coming to KAF].

Dutch Major General Mart de Kruif, who commands NATO's 22,300-strong International Security Assistance Force in southern Afghanistan, expects "a significant spike" in violence as fresh U.S. and NATO forces enter the region ahead of Afghan elections due in August.

"I think that what we are doing now is actually planting the seeds and that we'll view a significant increase in the security situation across southern Afghanistan next year," Kruif told Pentagon reporters in a video conference.

Southern Afghanistan, a six-province area where NATO forces operate under a command called Regional Command-South, is the country's most violent region. It is also the center of a global opium network believed to generate tens of millions of dollars in revenue for the Taliban insurgency.

The region is also expected to be a main subject of President Barack Obama's strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is expected to be unveiled next week.

Top NATO and U.S. commander for Afghanistan, U.S. Army General David McKiernan, had said the West is currently facing a stalemate in the country's south [emphasis added].

Experts say a lack of combat troops has allowed the Taliban to extend its influence in villages across heavily populated areas where Kruif estimates that NATO now controls only about 60 percent of the terrain...

The U.S. deployment is part of a larger build-up that defense officials say could lead to a total U.S. force of more than 60,000 troops in Afghanistan by year's end. There are currently 38,000 American troops in the country.

Kruif said he also expects additional forces for the south from other countries including Canada [could he be referring to this?], the Netherlands, Romania and possibly Britain [emphasis added]. "There are more coalition forces coming in," he said without elaborating.

Within the past two years, southern insurgents led by a militant council based across the border in the Pakistani city of Quetta have switched from targeting NATO forces to attacking the local civilian population, mainly with crudely built roadside munitions known as improvised explosive devices or IEDs [emphasis added].

One wonders how much effective command Maj.-Gen. de Kruif will have over the arriving US forces. This what the Canadian commander at Kandahar said recently:

...[Brig.-Gen. Jon] Vance said he expects the new American soldiers will report independently to NATO's southern command and not fall under Canadian command.

As part of the bargain that saw Canada get some relief and Parliament extend the country's mission to 2011, the U.S. agreed to place one infantry battalion under Canadian control last year.

That unit will remain as part of the Canadian task force, said Vance.