Afstan: Exit planning/Hoping more Yanks are coming

CDS Gen. Walt Natynczyk seems rather downbeat (and about the Navy too--for reasons see here):

...in windblown and landlocked Afghanistan, Canada and its military allies are dusting themselves off from a summer of stepped-up Taliban attacks, including the recent acid assault on schoolgirls and a prison break in Kandahar [more here], and the unprecedented targeting of Kabul's only luxury hotel and the Indian Embassy there [if you really think about it, not that many "sensational" actions over almost eleven months this year].

"Security has not improved, ladies and gentlemen, as the insurgents operated from sanctuaries along the Pakistan border and the attacks this summer became more sophisticated," Gen. Natynczyk told a military, business and diplomatic audience [at a Canadian Club luncheon].

"Quite simply, there aren't enough troops to secure the entire country," he added.

"The upcoming surge by the U.S. forces [see here and here] is essential to expand the security area, to hold the ground, to enable the Afghans to vote next fall."..

He also acknowledged the high cost of the mission, which the parliamentary budget officer recently projected as $18.1 billion by 2011.

"Most of these costs occurred because we allowed the Forces' capability to erode," said Gen. Natynczyk, who added that the infusions in recent years of billions of dollars to the defence budget have provided the equipment needed to protect Canadian soldiers and Afghans.

Federal spending estimates released yesterday [make what sense you can of them] showed that the incremental costs of the Afghanistan mission overshot projections by $331.1 million to hit a total of $848.6 million for 2008-09 to cover equipment, ammunition, repair and overhaul, immediate care, and engineering support.

Canadian soldiers, along with diplomats and aid workers, are racing to train enough Afghan police and army officers "despite the deterioration in the security situation" before the country withdraws its 2,500 troops in 2011 as scheduled.

"We're planning on this exit strategy with our NATO allies to ensure a seamless transfer of security responsibilities to other contingents [emphasis added]," he said, but refused to speculate afterward whether other NATO countries not serving in Afghanistan's troubled south would have to contribute troops.

He said "three years is a long time" for Canada to achieve its goals of training enough Afghan security forces to assume responsibility for their own people.

Gen. Natynczyk said the navy is his "greatest equipment concern" because it has not launched a new warship since the mid-1990s [emphasis added].

In yesterday's estimates, the navy also requested $54.6 million to modernize its Halifax-class frigates [part of this program, one assumes].

Gen. Natynczyk said eight years is the quickest time Canada has taken to design, build and commission a ship.

"Decisions we make now will have an impact," he said.