Afghan war costs

Half the estimated costs are for veterans (details come late in the story, are quite speculative, and occur over who knows how many years). But a loud front page headline in the Ottawa Citizen seems to be the ticket to upset readers. Note the important points on funding in the last three paras excerpted:

Afghan war costs $22B, so far: study
Much sought-after numbers released ahead of report by parliamentary budget officer

VICTORIA, B.C. - The Afghan war is going to end up costing the Defence Department more than $22 billion, in actual money spent on the mission and future payments to rebuild equipment and provide long-term care for veterans, a military conference heard yesterday.

The figures are contained in a yet-to-be-released study by security analyst David Perry, a former deputy director of Dalhousie University's Centre for Foreign Policy Studies. The study will be included in an upcoming edition of the International Journal published by the Canadian International Council...

In an interview last night, Mr. Perry said he was not surprised at the numbers he found. "We're fighting a war on the other side of the world and that takes a lot of resources," said Mr. Perry, currently in Ottawa.

He said that the number of Canadian veterans of Afghanistan is projected to be around 41,000 by 2010. That far exceeds the estimated 25,000 Canadian veterans from the Korean War, Mr. Perry said...

The breakdown of the Afghan costs is as follows:

- $7 billion for the cost of the war. This is the incremental cost from late 2001 to 2012. It includes everything from ammunition and fuel to the salaries of reservists and contractors. It does not include the salaries of regular force military personnel.

- $11 billion is the estimated future bill for Veterans Affairs and DND for long-term health care of veterans and related benefits, as well as having to deal with post traumatic stress disorder among troops. Veterans Affairs Canada predicts an increase of 13,000 Canadian Forces members to its client base by 2010. Using U.S. estimates, between 10 to 25 per cent of returning veterans may experience mental health problems as a result of their overseas deployment.

U.S. studies estimate that country's long-term health care and disability costs for its Iraq and Afghan veterans to be between $350 billion to $650 billion.

- $2 billion for the purchase of mission-specific equipment. That includes everything from Leopard tanks, howitzers, six Chinook helicopters, counter-mine vehicles to aerial drones. Defence officials argue that such equipment will be used on future missions beyond Afghanistan. The figure didn't include the latest $95 million lease for additional aerial drones.

- $2 billion for the replacement of the military's LAV-3 fleet. "This fleet is going to be worn out pretty soon from the wear and tear of Afghanistan and will have to be replaced," said Mr. Perry.

- $405 million for repair and overhaul costs.

Mr. Perry's study also determined the Liberal government had provided extra funding to the Defence Department to cover 85 per cent of the Afghan war costs.

The Conservative government, however, is funding only 29 per cent of the cost to the Defence Department for the war, according to the study, with the remaining money coming out of DND's existing budget.

Mr. Perry said the Conservatives might be providing more funding, but that is not apparent from publicly released figures. "The Liberals were much more transparent in the funding they were providing," he said...

I'd like to see what the Parliamentary Budget Officer officer says:

Harper agrees to release of Afghan war cost report

Stephen Harper has given his blessing to the release of a report on the cost of the Afghan war -- a document that could sway Conservative fortunes in the vital electoral battleground of Quebec, where the mission is highly unpopular.

Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page has tallied the full cost of the mission -- past and future -- and said he would like to release it. But he was worried about interfering with the federal election and asked for all-party consent.

All opposition parties gave their blessing Tuesday, and the prime minister agreed Wednesday.

The minority Conservative government has estimated the cost of the six-year mission at under $8 billion [emphasis added--and only so far I believe]. If the new figures are much higher, it could be bad news for Harper.

Polls have repeatedly shown that Canadians are lukewarm to the mission, especially in Quebec, where Harper must make gains to have any chance of winning his coveted majority.

And critics suggest cost overruns in the Afghan mission could erase the government's shrinking surplus and put the country into deficit, especially given the economic slowdown.

The Afghan mission has been a heavy burden for Canada with 97 soldiers and one diplomat killed. Canada has more than 2,000 personnel based in the dangerous Kandahar region...

Don't you just love the tone of the story? In any case it seems to me the government's cost estimate is in the same ballpark as the estimate above, veterans' and further equipment costs aside. But the Citizen story doesn't deal with that.