Life intrudes...

...inconveniently upon my blogging duties. I had meant to read and comment upon the Canada First Defence Policy document that we've finally been given by the Harper government. Unfortunately, other things have gotten in the way, like paid employment.

So, with no further lame apologies, I refer you to Paul Wells, and a commenter over at his place:

So I was really grateful to get an email this morning from Inkless comment-board regular MikeG, who — puttering in his spare time on a sunny weekend — has produced the most detailed analysis of the Harper defence plan’s spending projections that I have seen. He even made charts and graphs. And what they show is curious: while $490 billion sure looks like a heck of a number, it amounts to a gentle budgeted decline in Canada’s defence effort, compared against major allies, over time.

If I can find a 25th hour in my day, I'd love to dig into this a bit myself. Until then, thanks to MikeG for his analysis.

Update: The discussion at Army.ca can be found at this link. E.R. Campbell does some digging of his own:

Using the government’s own data: the graph (Chart 1) on page 11 of the ”Canada First” document and GDP (for 1st quarter of 2008) as reported by Statistics Canada* we can see that:

• Defence spending in 2008/09 (about $18 Billion according to page 4 of the document) will be 1.14% of GDP;


• It will rise to 1.16% of GDP in 2013/14 (when the defence budget is projected (page 11, again) to rise to $20 Billion);


• To 1.29% in 2019/20; and then


• Finally, to 1.34% in 2026/27.

Now, that is a real increase in the measure that matters, so kudos to the Conservative government for that.

We should be able to compare those rates to those of other big spending “envelopes” but, sadly, other ministers are, generally, unable, to project their budgets as far forward as DND is doing. We can, however, compare historical trends. For example, according to one (US) source, Canada’s health care spending increased at an average annual rate of 3.1% per years from 1980 to 2003. That is a rate which is higher than the average annual rate of GDP growth – in other words, health spending was a high priority because it grew at a rate that (slightly) exceeded the rate of GDP growth (which was about 3% for much of that period). Defence spending was a lower priority for much of that period (see page 11, yet again) having, for the 1986-2005 period an average annual rate of real growth of -0.4%.

More linky goodness over there, especially to The Ruxted Group pieces that have dealt with defence spending in this country.