Whither (whether) NATO

A long-standing question again rears its...

PARIS–A bleak recurring theme is emerging in the answers of European government insiders when pressed on the question of how far they might be willing to go to help Canada in the battle for volatile southern Afghanistan.

No matter whether you ask in French, German, Spanish or Italian, the pat response is to turn aside the question itself. And to ask a series of more difficult questions instead. Such was the case yesterday, when a senior French government source told the Star:

"The question is not `how far,' but simply `how?' – how are we going to rebuild and pacify Afghanistan? How are we going to cope with the present strategy? How are we going to win? And what do we mean by `win'?"

Though they are presented with the freedom of anonymity, the doubtful misgivings of European officials polled by the Star in recent days point to a hidden debate on whether the time has come for NATO to reconcile the international community's ambitious goals in Afghanistan with the drifting, uncertain reality of the mission on the ground.

One way or another, the issue will come to a head in early April at the NATO summit in Bucharest, where several European alliance members are hoping to persuade their counterparts on a revamped Strategic Plan for Afghanistan.

Two draft documents to that end are already circulating among NATO allies, but sources close to NATO headquarters in Brussels say it remains unclear whether the versions that reach Bucharest will entail a significant reassessment of the mission or mere window-dressing...

Some Western diplomats suggest the "Bye George Factor" stands as a deterrent to any dramatic commitments to Afghanistan by European allies. The thought process here is that European NATO partners may prefer to wait until U.S. President George W. Bush vacates the White House next January before substantially increasing their efforts.

"At a certain level that makes sense. The departure of Bush will remove some baggage from the Afghan equation," said Jean-François Daguzan, senior fellow at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research. "But it doesn't remove the essential discrepancy in Afghanistan, where you have only the military foot and not the redevelopment and reconstruction foot that was supposed to be standing beside it all along.

"We understand the Canadian dilemma. But there is a strategy question here that needs to be answered."

Fifty Norwegian soldiers might end up in the south helping train the Afghans.

Update: An interesting topic thread at Milnet.ca:

Saving NATO II

And, sadly (IED):

2 Polish soldiers killed in Afghanistan