Why Afstan? What about Pakistan? NATO?

A nice piece in the Halifax Chronicle Herald by Paul Schneidereit (via National Newswatch):

UNLESS you’re out of touch – deliberately or otherwise – you should find the notion that the Taliban might someday retake control of Afghanistan more than a little disturbing.

When previously in power, the Taliban showed themselves to be one of the most brutal, most misogynist regimes on the planet, denying education to girls, banning television, music and other trappings of the modern world, executing many, both men and women, who dared flout laws spawned by a pre-medieval mindset...

You’d also think, given the stakes, that NATO member countries would be highly invested in ensuring success in their Afghan involvement – but you’d be wrong. Despite the rhetoric by NATO leaders that everything’s fine, the truth is the alliance is now facing an existential meltdown over Afghanistan. While Canada, Holland, the U.K. and the United States have been doing the military heavy-lifting [plus Poles, Romanians, Danes] other NATO countries, like Germany, France and Italy, have wrapped their troop contingents in bubble wrap and placed Do Not Disturb signs on their forces...

Many Europeans say that the solution in Afghanistan cannot be a military one. That’s fine, but success won’t happen without a military component. With insufficient security, attempts to build infrastructure or institutions are dangerous, frustrating and ultimately unproductive. The Taliban have shown, through kidnappings of aid workers and attacks on teachers, students and new school buildings, that halting reconstruction is as important as killing infidel soldiers. The Europeans know this, but use rhetoric to try to excuse their failure to do their share as NATO members.

But Canada and the Dutch cannot be expected to keep carrying the heaviest burden, in terms of fighting, ad infinitum. Resolving matters in Afghanistan clearly remains a long-term challenge for NATO, made even more complicated by the political crisis now engulfing neighbouring Pakistan.

According to those familiar with the situation, Taliban leaders have sought refuge across the Pakistani border for many years, crisscrossing the mountainous region to recruit new fighters in Pakistan and raise funds to hire young Afghan men into their militias when they return to Afghanistan. Now, Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf’s extremely unpopular weekend decision to impose a state of emergency rule in his country has sharpened the chances that pro-Taliban Islamists will tighten their hold on the tribal provinces that border Afghanistan and are not under government control.

That will strengthen Taliban resolve to continue the fight, believing that they can outlast the willpower of even NATO’s staunchest supporters of the Afghan mission. Which means Canadian troops, despite piling up victories in head-to-head confrontations, will likely see no letup in Taliban incursions into areas under their control in coming years.

Of course, what happens in Pakistan is a further wildcard, not just for NATO but for the entire world. Musharraf claims he needs emergency powers to fight the Islamists, but his actions so far have been aimed at other opponents, such as members of the Supreme Court, which seemed about to declare he could not run for the presidency. Pro-democracy groups have also been targeted. The U.S. and other Western financial donors have warned Musharraf he must hold scheduled elections in January or aid will stop flowing. The greatest fear is that Musharraf could be overthrown by radical Islamists, potentially putting Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal into their hands.

This is a problem beyond Canada’s capacity to resolve alone. The future of NATO may hang in the balance. The future of Afghanistan certainly does. If the West fails to stop the Taliban from reinstituting its reign of terror in that country, the negative repercussions will be felt for generations, on both sides of the Atlantic.

For more context on Pakistan:

U.S. military aid to Pakistan misses its Al Qaeda target
The Frontier Corps battling the militants is outgunned and poorly trained, officials say. Funding instead goes to equipment more suited for conventional warfare with India.

A Detour From a Battle Against Terror

Another coup in the 'Land of the Pure'