Afstan: Caution required

Just so readers continue to get a broad perspective:

1) Afghan mission may fail, general warns

One of Britain's most outspoken military officers issued stark warnings about the potential for failure in Afghanistan at a forum hosted by the Canadian high commission Thursday.

Lt.-Gen. David Richards, who commanded the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan from May 2006 to February 2007, said he remains optimistic western allies will ultimately stabilize the war-ravaged country and keep it out of Taliban hands.

But Richards said the military's poppy eradication campaign could backfire, NATO's efforts in the country lack focus and there aren't nearly enough boots on the ground in Afghanistan's incendiary southern region, where Canadian, U.S., British and Dutch forces are concentrated.

ISAF commander Dan McNeill, the U.S. general who succeeded Richards, "has too few troops to conduct the operation in a manner that meets the basic rules of a counter-insurgency campaign."

While western allies can claim "pretty impressive" success in areas like health care, education and security in Kabul and the northern and western regions, they are having trouble meeting expectations in the south and parts of the east, said Richards, who will become commander-in-chief of Britain's land forces in January.

"Here the picture is one of slow progress, broken promises, unmet expectations, and poor security," he said.

While he didn't single out Canada, Richards expressed fear weakening public support for the mission will lessen NATO's resolve to see out the conflict...[Globe and Mail story here]

2) Still much work to do in Afghanistan

With an insurgency on the rise and an increased perception of insecurity among locals, the international community should not "pretend" that stable progress is being made in Afghanistan, a top European diplomat said yesterday.

Francesc Vendrell, the European Union's special representative for Afghanistan, said an increasing number of Afghans fear for their safety, the Taliban is more active than at any time since 2001 and there are strong links between the Taliban, organized crime and government officials.

"Why are we at this point?" he asked at an Ottawa conference. "I don't think we should try and pretend that everything is all right."

Vendrell was one of a number of speakers yesterday discussing the successes and drawbacks that coalition forces are having bringing peace and security to the country.

Jonathan Parish, a senior NATO policy adviser, said: "As long as the Taliban can take sanctuary across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area ... the task for NATO members, particularly in the south and east of Afghanistan, will remain difficult if not impossible.

"That is why encouraging a more effective contribution from Pakistan is important."

All agreed that one of the bright spots in international efforts to rehabilitate Afghanistan was the training of the Afghan National Army. The force stands just shy of 40,000 troops but is rapidly expanding.

A recent spat between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Gen. Rick Hillier, the chief of the defence staff, focused on just how long it would take for Canada to train the Afghan army. The Conservative throne speech last month asserted it was "achievable" by 2011, allowing for a Canadian withdrawal from the country after that. Hillier later said that it would take about 10 years. He was quickly forced to clarify his comments [good Globe piece by Marcus Gee here].

Both Parish, a Briton, and Vendrell, a Spaniard, gave a cautious endorsement of the 2011 target date for the Afghan army.

"I'm less worried about whether we will meet the date than whether we will meet the actual substance of the agreement we arrived at in London (where the Afghanistan Compact was signed)," Vendrell said.

Parish said that 49 NATO training teams are currently working with the ANA and that number is set to jump to 70 by this time next year...

Now some good news.

3) NATO beats back Taliban

The Taliban is on the run north of Kandahar city after a joint counter-attack by Afghan and NATO forces, Canadian officials say...

But with another note of caution:

However one local observer said no matter what the outcome in Arghandab, the Taliban has won in one respect.

"What I think is key to note is the symbolic, emotional weight of the Taliban being in Arghandab," said Sarah Chayes, an American writer and humanitarian who has a home in Kandahar City. "Even if the government and ISAF drive them back out in short order, which looks like it's going to happen, they have scored a major (psychological operations) point."..

This, however, is interesting and encouraging (even though the NY Times fails to mention Canadians):

Abdullah Jan, a villager who remained in the area, said many of the Taliban appeared to be 18 to 20 years old. Some covered their faces with scarves, he said, a sign that “they were not Afghans.” He praised Afghan and NATO forces for not bombarding the area and killing civilians.

“They didn’t use air power; all operations were infantry,” Mr. Jan said...