Why would we abandon them?

Those who oppose Canada's mission in Afghanistan need to take a long, hard look at their own morality, as I see it. Because not only the Afghan government, but the Afghan people want us to stay and see our work through.

Read the poll results at Environics.

It's almost uniformly positive:

• Almost three quarters of Afghans believe women are better off today than they were in 2002 after the Taliban fell.


• 60% believe they're personally better off than in 2002.


• Over 70% are positive about Hamid Karzai's government.


• Over 80% express confidence in the ANA, but surprisingly to me, only slightly fewer express confidence in the ANP, an organization we're frequently told is both corrupt and incompetent. So much for the prevailing views of Canadians.


• Of those familiar with the Community Development Councils (see my post here that stresses the importance of the National Solidarity Program), about 70% feel they're doing good work.


• 60% feel the presence of foreign troops is worthwhile at this point, and about the same percentage think those troops are doing a good job of fighting the Taliban. Even more (75%) think the troops are doing a good job of training Afghan security forces.


• 60% in Kandahar have a positive opinion of Canadian troops.


• By a four-to-one margin, Kandahar residents say Canada is doing a better job (48%) rather than a worse job (12%) than other countries helping in Afghanistan.


• Around 70% of Afghans (with very little drop-off in Kandahar) have a negative view of the Taliban, and a similar percentage deplore their tactics of kidnappings and suicide bombings.


• Six in ten think the international effort has made progress fighting the Taliban since 2003, with numbers rising closer to seven in ten when discussing reconstruction or training Afghan security forces.


• Only one in seven Afghans think foreign troops should leave the country right away.


• In contrast to the 64% who feel that Pakistan is an unhealthy influence in the country, and 34% who feel the same way about Iran, only two to three percent of Afghans feel Canada is doing a bad job in their country. That's less than the survey's margin of error, incidentally.

Not all the news is positive, however:

• Approximately three quarters of those polled believe the Karzai government should negotiate with the Taliban. The idea of negotiation with moderate elements isn't abhorrent in and of itself, but the results are curious, given the fact that only 29% of Afghans nationwide (and 14% in Kandahar, where they'd know better than the northern regions) believe the Taliban is a "united political force." I'd suggest that the way forward is outreach to moderate sub-groups and individuals, and coercion of those who want to fight. Given the low popularity of the Taliban, this course is likely a winner for the Karzai government and ISAF.


• Only 51% of Afghans feel the country is moving in the right direction, although this number is almost double the number of those who feel it's moving in the wrong direction (28%) - the rest are on the fence. In Kandahar, the optimists and pessimists are almost in a dead heat. There's good news here, though: last year, the number who felt the country was moving in the right direction was only 44% according to this 2006 poll of Afghan public opinion by the Asia Foundation (pdf). "Slow and steady wins the race"...or so I hope.


• Only 40% of Afghans expect the Karzai government to prevail over the Taliban should foreign troops depart, although those who feel the Taliban will win numbers only 19%. Significantly, 40% remain on the fence on this issue. We need to get this undecided contingent to see that the Afghan government is the strong horse in this field.


• Only 43% of Afghans feel international forces should stay in Afghanistan as long as it takes to defeat the Taliban and return order, and the number drops to 31% in Kandahar. From those numbers, contrasted with the positive opinion of foreign troops and their effect cited in the previous section, I'd conclude that these are a proud people who are grateful for our help, but look forward to the day when they can handle their problems on their own. I can't blame them.


• Only half of Afghans are even aware Canadians are working to help their country, behind the U.S., Britain, and Germany. Astonishingly, when it comes specifically to fighting the Taliban, only 2% were aware of our efforts - although the numbers climb to about one in four when asked to name countries involved in reconstruction and training of Afghan security forces. While recognition isn't what we're there for, this news is certainly disappointing, since it doesn't bode well for future relations - ask yourself if Canadians will be welcomed in Afghanistan in sixty years the way that Canadians are in Holland today, sixty years after we were a major part of liberating that country from the Nazis, and you'll see why I believe awareness matters. The fact that Germany ranks so much higher than Canada in Afghan minds puzzled me until I remembered that Germany has 3,000 troops in the country, and that Germany was one of the few western nations to maintain an active interest and presence in Afghanistan between the departure of the Soviets and the overthrow of the Taliban.

I think the most positive thing to take away from this poll is the fact that there seems to be a modest improvement in Afghan attitudes about their own progress since last year (the whole 2006 survey is fascinating, far broader in its scope than the current Environics poll, and with almost six times the sample size).

Of course, the line of the day has to go to Spink About It:

Turns out that number is only 15% who generally view the Canadians as infidels. Hmmm 15%. That's about the same number that supports the NDP, a party that wants to negotiate with the Taliban. Must be a coincidence.

Not a statistically sound correlation, but a fun jab nonetheless!

Update: I can't believe I didn't mention it in the original post, but in what sort of bizarro world are Afghans more positive about our mission in their country than Canadians are?

The latest Environics' FOCUS CANADA survey numbers (from September-October) show that fewer than half (45%) of Canadians support the current mission, only one in three believe it is very (8%) or somewhat (24%) likely to be successful in the end, and a plurality (43%) want to see our troops return home before the mission is scheduled to end in 2009.

This is topsy-turvy stuff, folks. As so many of my friends would say: get yourselves sorted out!

How-can-you-breathe-up-there?-date: Our opposition parties have decided to bury their heads deep, deep in their own ass in the sand.