Coming down off the legalization high
I've felt for awhile now that eradicating poppy fields was a counterproductive tactic to deal with the problem of drug profits corrupting Afghan civil society and funding the Taliban insurgency.
But while Mark posted favourably about legalization efforts - a position I expressed some support for in comments - Bruce Rolston at Flit has taken exception with Applebaum's idea. He makes a well researched and convincing case:
So while I still feel that forced eradication efforts do more harm than good, I can't ignore the evidence that legalization isn't the panacea some would have us believe.
As LGen Leslie said at an event I attended recently: "Some of the best minds in the world are wrestling with this problem, and there don't seem to be any easy answers."
I hope that the commanders on the ground can see that spraying poppy fields with herbicide or simply ploughing them under isn't going to win any 'hearts and minds' in the Afghan countryside. And I hope that the political leaders listen to those pointy-end voices and allow our troops to chart a different course.
What would that course be? Well, apparently far better minds than mine are working on it...
Update: Apparently the Canadian government is listening after all.
Upperdate: Karzai concurs...for now.
But while Mark posted favourably about legalization efforts - a position I expressed some support for in comments - Bruce Rolston at Flit has taken exception with Applebaum's idea. He makes a well researched and convincing case:
"Just like Afghanistan, Turkey had a long tradition of poppy cultivation. Just like Afghanistan, Turkey worried that poppy eradication could bring down the government."
Um, okay, look, the 1971 yield of opium resin for Turkey was 58 tonnes, which would normally yield you 6 tonnes of heroin. In 1971, when the U.S. backed eradication effort started this was enough to be 7 per cent of the world's supply. The eradication was largely achieved, Applebaum is correct in saying, by reserving 80% of the legal U.S. market for opiates for Turkish farmers to fill.
The 2006 Afghan yield for opium resin was 6100 tonnes, or 610 tonnes of heroin. This is at a time when it's believed the total annual world consumption of heroin is only 450 tonnes (the rest is consumed as other opium products). That's two orders of magnitude higher than the Turkish problem.
...
There is no way that any increased legal market for this substance can possibly make a dent in these kinds of numbers. Trying to draw lessons from the Turkey situation given that kind of differential seems pretty absurd.
So while I still feel that forced eradication efforts do more harm than good, I can't ignore the evidence that legalization isn't the panacea some would have us believe.
As LGen Leslie said at an event I attended recently: "Some of the best minds in the world are wrestling with this problem, and there don't seem to be any easy answers."
I hope that the commanders on the ground can see that spraying poppy fields with herbicide or simply ploughing them under isn't going to win any 'hearts and minds' in the Afghan countryside. And I hope that the political leaders listen to those pointy-end voices and allow our troops to chart a different course.
What would that course be? Well, apparently far better minds than mine are working on it...
Update: Apparently the Canadian government is listening after all.
Upperdate: Karzai concurs...for now.
posted by Babbling Brooks at 9:00 p.m.
3 Comments:
No doubt one of the single biggest problems to deal with in Afghanistan.
It will require a combination of legalization, eradication and crop replacement. (along with a lot of aid/development money).
I've often thought that Hemp would be a perfect replacement crop to encourage in Afghanistan. The growing conditions are well suited to Afghanistan. No pesticides required, low water requirements, simple harvesting. The uses range from construction materials, health food (seeds), clothing, paper, biofuels and many others. It's a versatile renewable resource that could help Afghanistan develop an alternative economy to drugs.
When the Taliban first came into power, they produced the then largest ever opium crop. The result was a drop in the price of opium and its byproducts that was so severe that opium lost its value as a cash crop.
So, when the drug lords complained, the Taliban made it illegal to grow opium, in order to lower the price.
Once again we've seen a record crop; chances are that the market will adjust and that opium will once again become worthless to grow. The problem just may correct itself. Why grow opium if the drug lords can't pay you for it.
Should read, "in order to raise the price"
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