Thursday, December 14, 2006

Why US Army doesn't want C-130J/Airbus A400M faces "'significant' challenges"

1) Perhaps the NDP, BQ, Liberals and David Pugliese of the Ottawa Citizen should read this.
Lockheed Martin has lost its bid to be reinstated in the competition to provide the U.S. Army and Air Force with a Joint Cargo Aircraft. The program could involve up to 100 aircraft worth $5 billion. At least some participants say the decision turned on an Army demand for GATM (Global Air Traffic Management) system capability on the first aircraft. The company's plan was to add it at a later date approved by the Air Force. Lockheed Martin pitched the only four-engine design--a version of its standard body C-130J. The other competitors offered twin-engine aircraft--the C-295 from Raytheon/ EADS and C-27J from L-3 Communications/Alenia North America/ Boeing. The Government Accountability Office upheld USAF's decision to eliminate the C-130J in the first downselect. Lockheed Martin continues to build its transport, but an order slowdown means it could face a line shutdown by 2009. Lockheed Martin officials said they had shown there was an advantage to the Army operating an aircraft already in USAF inventory, rather than introducing a new design. Army officials want a smaller aircraft that won't be dominated and controlled operationally by the Air Force [emphasis added]. Supporters of twin-engine designs say some studies show the C-130J can't meet some of the tactical scenarios for takeoffs from 2,000-ft. runways that are prevalent in operational hot spots. Lockheed Martin says its aircraft is the best performer in high-altitude/hot-temperature conditions.
2) Now I wonder if our politicians and reporters have read this.
Airbus will have to commit more engineering resources to the A400M military airlifter program to rein in "critical risk areas" and preserve its schedule, customers are concluding after EADS briefed them on the results of a study of the project's status.

The report suggests there are "significant" challenges to meeting first flight in March 2008 and other scheduled milestones. The risks are "systems design (in particular electrical harnesses), maturity of military mission systems, engine modifications, remaining work to be done on the final assembly line."

Although EADS says the program schedule is holding, a senior company official acknowledges an updated master plan is being developed and will be presented to customers. Under scrutiny is the start of final assembly in Seville, Spain. Airbus Chief Operating Officer Fabrice Bregier says the goal is to ensure all elements are in place before the process starts, and to avoid A380-like problems that have led to excessive rework and program delays.

The electrical wiring harness issue on the A400M is different than for the A380, officials say. The A400M harnesses are less complex and the proper design tools are being used. However, a company official says the supply of some harnesses is running behind.

One military buyer says the depth of the review is appreciated by customers, and keeping the delivery schedule is positive. However, he says, there clearly is no more schedule margin left and EADS will have to enhance resources to meet contractual milestones.

Bregier says the aircraft will meet performance targets. That's critical, says the military representative. But he also points out that the first six aircraft, pre-production versions, will not meet those standards.

The engine program has long been recognized as a possible risk area. A modified Lockheed Martin C-130 is due to enter flight trials fitted with a single TP400 in the first quarter of next year.

A400M users are pressing Airbus Military to ensure reliability is high on delivery. They don't want to suffer years of growing pains [emphasis added], such as those the U.K. and Royal Australian Air Force underwent when fielding the C-130J [problems LM says are generally resolved].

9 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mark from Ottawa, in his ongoing crusade to promote the C-130J, is being his usual selective self about what he posts. I notice he hasn’t addressed the latest story in the Ottawa Citizen which has details about DND’s own concerns about the C-130J.

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=daedd90b-eaf5-4a33-9347-196b34243501

There are at least two reports produced by the Canadian Air Force last year (I’m told there are more) which detail DND’s worries about C-130J problems, regarding inadequate range and payload and significant operational limitations. Lockheed is still trying to address these with its Block upgrades and maybe will even do so by 2007 or 2008.

Unlike Mark, even DND acknowledges that there are problems with the C-130J….notice the quote in the story from the official DND spokesman Jeremy Sales:

"Like any new piece of equipment, the C-130J has had some development challenges," Mr. Sales said. "The aircraft is moving towards becoming a mature platform that will meet the needs of the Canadian Forces."

Despite Mark’s best attempts to gloss over the C-130J issues they are there and could come back to haunt the CF when they purchase the aircraft.

I’m also finding Mark’s unrelenting cheerleading over Lockheed Martin’s products fascinating. He’s on numerous blogs praising the C-130J or the JSF and going at the competition (Airbus, CASA, Boeing etc) like a first-rate attack dog. It seems he hasn’t met a Lockheed product he doesn’t like and there’s not an ounce of criticism….and there are things to be quite critical about on both C-130J and JSF as the aerospace industry press/Congress/GOA reports have chronicled over the years.

So what gives?

It’s well known in the aerospace industry that Lockheed has hired bloggers to trash their opponent’s aircraft and to pump up their own products. I hope Mark isn’t some Lockheed front-man.

But I have my suspicions. And those suspicions weren’t put to rest when I noticed the other day that this blog is now posting public relations material direct from Thornley Fallis, Lockheed’s PR firm, in Ottawa. God, even the mainstream media doesn’t do that!

I think a blog like this should only have the best interests of the CF at heart, and not turn into some promotional vehicle for any one aerospace company.

8:23 p.m., December 14, 2006  
Blogger Mark, Ottawa said...

Gary: I did not post Mr Pugliese's story here as I thought it had little of interest for a general reader and added nothing new.

I did however post it at the more specialized Army.ca:
http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,53631.msg495842.html#msg495842

I have no connection with, or special favour, for LM. Rather than praising the C-130J (quote an example in my words, please), I have been saying that there simply is no other plane for the mission for the Canadian Air Force in time. If you can show an instance of my promoting in any way the F-35 please also provide an example.

At heart I'm a Boeing boy and was most disappointed when the (Jug-ugly) X-32 lost out in the USAF competition.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-32

Ah, but there must be conspiracies rather than common sense. Which going for the A400M would deny.

And is it not odd that last November (2005) the Conservatives were criticizing the Liberals for going for the C-130J and now the situation is reversed? Politics, sweet Canadian, uninformed, politics.

Mark
Ottawa

8:45 p.m., December 14, 2006  
Blogger Mark, Ottawa said...

Gary: Also, I've never gone at CASA (examples?--though the C-27J seems better for the fixed-wing SAR--but I could well be wrong and have never taken a die in the ditch position), rather have gone at Bombardier.

And when have I ever gone after Boeing? Have in fact been supporting the C-17 buy. Do make a reasoned critique.

"what gives?" You, as a second-rate "attack dog", without evidence--though with obvious prejudice.

Mark
Ottawa

9:19 p.m., December 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mark, I think you didn’t post the Ottawa Citizen story because it raises questions about the C-130J and potentially undercuts your steadfast position that Canada should purchase the aircraft. After all, the criticism this time isn’t coming from the NDP, Bloc or Liberals which can easily be explained as partisan politics….it is coming from officers inside the Canadian Forces (which shows not everyone shares your view on the C-130J).

You seem to follow the same tactics whether it is on this site or others: Your posts regularly and vehemently defend any perceived slight (perceived by you) towards Lockheed Martin. Or, as the post you did above shows, you go out of your way to ensure that Lockheed Martin is portrayed in the best light….i.e. that the real reason the aircraft wasn’t selected for the Army program has to do internal U.S. military politics and nothing at all with the deficiencies with the aircraft.

And you never ever ever acknowledge that there are problems with the C-130J (which there are, as a simple search on Goggle shows).

And in regards to your claim you don’t promote the JSF, haven’t you read your own posts on this site, on Daimnation, on army.ca? Again, any time there is even the slightest negative publicity on this aircraft you go into action, swiftly I might add.

I don’t think Lockheed’s PR department could do it any better than you do, and that is a compliment of sorts.

I’m not talking about conspiracies here. In fact, I think it is an excellent move by Lockheed to hook up with someone like you and provide information. For instance, Lockheed’s public relations firm, Thornley Fallis, is just doing its job providing this blog with PR pap on the JSF. When billions of dollars are at stake, as they are for both the JSF and C-130J programs, any push to promote a product is important, whether it be in MSM or on blogs. So hats off to you and Lockheed.

10:05 p.m., December 14, 2006  
Blogger Mark, Ottawa said...

Dear Gary: You have not provided a single direct quote to support your assertions. I await--please, especially with regard to the JSF/F-35. Otherwise you are a falsifier or, to be kind, deluded. As used to be said, "stand and deliver" or forever hold your peace.

Attitude is not evidence.

And do suggest an aircraft other than the C-130J that can meet Canadian Air Force's needs within the time required. That is the basis for my position.

Mark
Ottawa

10:26 p.m., December 14, 2006  
Blogger Babbling Brooks said...

Gary, your insinuation that this blog is fronting for LM through their PR firm is unfounded. And since I put up the F-35 post you noted, I'd like to respond.

Thornley Fallis does send me press releases, as they send to other media outlets - for their own self-interested reasons, to be sure. I posted their release on the JSF verbatim because it was the first announcement out - before the rest of the media, and before even DND - and I thought being first out of the blocks was a good enough reason to. I made no endorsement of the program, and in fact, expressed some doubts about it while admitting my knowledge on it is bare. And in advising the info was directly from the PR firm, I think the reader was given fair warning of the slant of the contents. I don't know how I could have been more open about this.

None of us here receive a thin dime for what we do at this site - no perqs, no coin, nothing. And speaking of being open, who pays your salary, Gary?

If you want to question our integrity and motivations around here, I think turnabout is fair play.

I echo Mark's comment: until someone shows me a flying A-400M that can beat the C-130J straight up, I'll go with the bird in the hand, rather than the two supposedly lurking in the bush.

2:15 a.m., December 15, 2006  
Blogger Babbling Brooks said...

None of us here receive a thin dime for what we do at this site - no perqs, no coin, nothing. And speaking of being open, who pays your salary, Gary?

*crickets*

'Nuff said.

12:08 a.m., December 16, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi, sorry for getting into this so late. I just saw it when I was doing research on the C130J. While I don't agree entirely with Gary's point, I have to admit I can see how he has come to some of his conclusions about Mark fronting for Lockheed Martin.

Mark from Ottawa is extremely active on the blogs targeting the C130J's main competition, the Airbus A400M. From my searchs he posts any and every negative article he can find on the A400M and Airbus/EADS (kickbacks, bribes). Any time there is a news article on the JSF or C-130J that is even in the slightest bit less than complimentary he goes into action to try to shoot it down as well as anyone associated with it.


But I think Gary is off in regards to finding posts by Mark directly praising the C-130J or JSF. It's more that he moves extremely quickly to attack any articles/reports that might hurt Lockheed's chances to sell the C-130j or JSF to Canada and he is more than happy on this blog to admit that he distributes anti-A400M material to the MSM.

At the same time this blog has posted Lockheed PR material directly provided by Thornley Fallis. I searched for other PR material from other defence firms but didn't see anything (there are several press releases issued weekly by Canadian firms who have sold to the DND and the U.S.) So I do question whether you are favoring one firm (in this case Lockheed Martin) over others.

In his push to promote Lockheed Martin, Mark never mentions any of the well documented negative aspects of the C-130J and he never mentions that Lockheed has had its share of bribery scandals. How convenient.

From what I see, Babbling Brooks, Fred and Mark are of the opinion that there is nothing besides the C130J out there at this time.

That is true but (in my opinion) Mark is falling into the trap that some others have not. His argument is all based on Gen. Hillier's claim that large numbers of existing C-130s that will be grounded by 2008.

But there is also a view in the CF that the C-17s, which are expected to come pretty fast and way before the old C-130 craps out, can handle the strat lift and the newer models C130s we still have are enough to handle intra-theater ops. That theory pushes the idea that we hold tight with the C-17s, maybe upgrade some existing C130s and then wait until the A400m comes on line in 2012 and beyond. By doing that we have a much more modern aircraft fleet operated by a large number of our allies (some C-130Hs, C-17s and A400Ms). This theory is even hinted at in a column in the new issue of the Canadian Military Journal.

And despite Mark's rah rah attitude, the C-130J does have major problems. You just won't read about those on this blog, that's for sure. Lockheed is trying to fix the problems. Will they be successful? Who know? If they aren't then we're stuck with a problem C-130J.

So as you can see, things are not as clear cut as Mark pretends them to be. I believe in outlining all the pros and cons (instead of just nailing Lockheed's competition as Mark does).

I also think, respectively, what this blog needs to do is decide whether it wants to simply reinforce the status quo opinions of the government/CF leadership.....which is fine but should be outlined up front on this blog. Or you can actually think outside the box, question things a little, instead of taking the standard route that Mark has.

If you do that I think our troops might be the receipient of some good discussions. If you don't then you just become another propaganda vehicle for tthose whoe follow the status quo.

5:44 p.m., December 19, 2006  
Blogger Babbling Brooks said...

Hey Gary/Anonymous - why the change to your profile name? And pretending you're not Gary after that? Sock-puppetry doesn't cut it in the blogosphere, period.

And after charging that we're on Lockheed Martin's payroll, then seeing our black-and-white denial, you still haven't answered my question about your own paycheques. Dodging won't earn you any credibility on this site.

It's becoming increasingly obvious you have a spin agenda you'd like to see out there, and you're trying to use our blog to propagate it. That's not how things work out here.

I searched for other PR material from other defence firms but didn't see anything (there are several press releases issued weekly by Canadian firms who have sold to the DND and the U.S.) So I do question whether you are favoring one firm (in this case Lockheed Martin) over others.

Heh. Nice little drive-by smear. How about this, Gary/Anonymous: if you can convince other defence firms to put us on their distribution list for press releases, be my guest. Speaking personally, the only ones I get are from Thornley Fallis - and they offered without any strings. We shill for no one.

Despite your pathetic and transparent attempts to discredit us, while only discrediting yourself with sock-puppetry and unfounded allegations, you do raise one decent point for discussion:

But there is also a view in the CF that the C-17s, which are expected to come pretty fast and way before the old C-130 craps out, can handle the strat lift and the newer models C130s we still have are enough to handle intra-theater ops. That theory pushes the idea that we hold tight with the C-17s, maybe upgrade some existing C130s and then wait until the A400m comes on line in 2012 and beyond. By doing that we have a much more modern aircraft fleet operated by a large number of our allies (some C-130Hs, C-17s and A400Ms). This theory is even hinted at in a column in the new issue of the Canadian Military Journal.

I actually asked some folks who know a lot more about both Canadian Hercs and DND procurement than I do about this awhile back, and they told me it was considered a riskier course than the one DND has chosen. The C-130J is a bird in the hand, and the A400M is supposedly two in the bush. We can't afford to find out if the gamble is worth it.

10:33 a.m., January 08, 2007  

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