Afstan: Economic and other problems

A Canadian intelligence assessment from early September:

Afghanistan's financial infrastructure is "primitive" and its recent economic growth "will be difficult to sustain," says a blunt assessment of the country's future by senior Canadian government officials.

Afghanistan is "seriously hampered" by security problems, endemic corruption, skilled labour shortages, limited access to finances, land tenure problems, the strain of returning refugees and "the generally weak rule of law," says the Sept. 5 analysis prepared by the Privy Council Office.

The office, the co-ordinating body for cabinet and the prime minister's office, released the seven-page document after a request under the Access to Information Act.

Its bleak forecast, delivered almost two weeks before a visit to Canada by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, appears at odds with recent claims by other Canadian officials that progress has been significant and steady.

The heavily censored report, The Future of Afghanistan: The Next Five Years, was written by PCO's intelligence assessment co-ordinating committee and widely distributed within government.

Based on "diplomatic and intelligence sources from Canada and allied countries," the report says some progress has been achieved since the U.S.-led victory over the Taliban in November 2001, particularly in children's schooling and improved access to basic health care.

But the vast majority of the population still struggles for the "bare essentials of survival," just as they did in the days of the Taliban.

The economy has benefited from the influx of foreign aid, which is driving a reconstruction boom, but is far from being self-sustaining.

Substantial budget subsidies and continued foreign financing will be required for many more years to help with trade and current account deficits, says the report.

The country's economy is heavily dependent on the drug trade, and although most poppy production is located in the southern provinces, revenue from drug production and shipment is important outside these Taliban-controlled areas.

The authors praise Afghanistan's new constitution and the direct election of the president, and say the elected legislature "has been surprisingly active and effective" since it was formed a year ago...

The Privy Council committee produced at least one earlier report on Afghanistan last December, The Afghan Economy: Is there one?

That study slammed non-governmental agencies for their "squandering of aid money" and said "the rehabilitation efforts of disparate aid groups, agencies and nations often overlap, conflict, or are at worst, fratricidal."..

Update: More on these issues at this Army.ca thread.

Upperdate: A round-up piece in the Washington Post:

There is a note of panic in American views of Afghanistan today. "All the indicators for Afghanistan have headed south," the Los Angeles Times editorialized. Outside Kabul, "much of the rest of Afghanistan appears to be failing again," Newsweek reported. Sen. John Kerry warned: We are "losing Afghanistan."..

Yet the full picture in Afghanistan's rugged terrain is more complex...

Afghanistan's problems are real and deepening. They demand major military, reconstruction and diplomatic efforts before dashed expectations turn into active discontent. But the situation is hardly catastrophic. Enough positives remain to serve as a foundation for success. If America is to succeed in Afghanistan, however, we will have to understand it first.

Uppestdate: Gen. Hillier weighs in:

Changing Afghan mission to reconstruction, not security, would fail: Hillier