Afstan: The Pakistan problem

The Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan makes things in Afghanistan a lot more difficult.

For all the heated debate taking place about Britain’s deepening military commitment to Afghanistan, the government is proving remarkably reluctant to discuss the most important factor of all — the role of Pakistan. The official line is that General Pervaiz Musharraf, the Pakistani leader, is our key ally in the war against terror. That is what Islamabad has led us to believe ever since since Musharraf decided to ally himself with the US-led coalition that was formed in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks...

The fundamental reason the Taleban has been able to re-establish itself as an effective fighting force in Helmand is that the Pakistani authorities have been unable or, more likely, unwilling to tackle its organisational infrastructure which lies in the Pakistan-controlled tribal territories along the 1,500-mile border with Afghanistan. And so long as the Musharraf government is prepared to tolerate the Taleban’s activities in its own backyard, it will be virtually impossible for the British mission — and its Nato allies — to maintain some semblance of security in southern Afghanistan.

There are an estimated 2.5 million Afghan refugees in the Pakistani-controlled tribal areas such as Waziristan — most of them originate from the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The Taleban has no difficulty recruiting eager young men to fight their cause from the thousands of mainly Saudi-funded madrasas that provide the only form of schooling among this impoverished community. From there it is relatively easy to transport them across the porous, mountainous border into Helmand where they are then sent in to do battle with British Paras...

But as one officer recently explained to me in Helmand, ‘As soon as we get one lot of the buggers, another lot come streaming across the border to take their place. Until we can get the Pakistanis to do their bit, there is no prospect of overall victory.’

The officer did not want to be quoted by name for fear of upsetting his political masters in London, who insist on perpetrating the myth that the Pakistanis are actively supporting the British mission, when in reality they are doing no such thing. Certainly that was the view of the Afghan defence minister, General Abdul Wardak, when I raised the issue directly with him in Kabul. ‘The Pakistanis say they are doing everything they can, but in practice they are doing very little.’..

But if too much pressure is put on President Musharraf to deal with Islamists (domestic, Taliban, Kashmiri) he may be overthrown and replaced by a very distasteful regime indeed.

In any case, the fight will only be won when the Afghans are able to look after their own defence: that is the "exit strategy". But the US and NATO are doing nowhere near enough to help build that capability according to General Wardak.

Update: Some thoughts from the British general now commanding NATO ISAF:

The West is to blame for the resurgence of the Taliban because it sent too few troops to Afghanistan, but an expanding NATO peace force will now turn the tide, the force's commander said on Thursday.

British Lieutenant General David Richards, commander of the multinational force that is due to take control in the dangerous south within weeks, acknowledged fighting has been tougher than hoped, but predicted success as his troops win hearts and minds...