Karzais' control of Kandahar/Brit shift there?

Note the placement of the apostrophe; sticky situation, eh? BruceR. provides the link, and a key point, at Flit:

Carl Forsberg has an excellent "White SA" roundup of the power-political dynamics in Kandahar out today. It's a must-read for understanding the local situation. From the executive summary:

Ahmed Wali Karzai’s influence over Kandahar is the central obstacle to any of ISAF’s governance objectives...

On the NDS, Forsberg makes an observation largely absent in current Canadian reportage:

"In contrast to the police force, the Karzai family has installed close allies into the NDS in southern Afghanistan, and the Kandahar NDS is a vibrant and strong organization loyal to Karzai family interests... The NDS in Kabul is directed by Amrullah Saleh, a Tajik and former deputy to Massoud. But Saleh has limited influence over his organization and is kept in power mostly because of American backing. His influence over the organization does not extend to Kandahar. Several close Karzai allies and even family members in NDS Headquarters in Kabul ensure Karzai influence in parts of the NDS bureaucracy. This shadow ownership enables regional branches of the NDS in areas like Kandahar to be dominated by strong Karzai allies... There are few additional details in the open source on the leadership of the Kandahar NDS or on its leaders’ political affiliations, but there is common recognition that the Kandahar NDS is strongly loyal to the Karzai family."..

Meanwhile, a wholesale shift of UK forces from Helmand to Kandahar might make sense since as of this fall the Brits will no longer be in charge at Helmand if US plans for changing the ISAF command structure go through :

Afghanistan surge planned as shift to Kandahar proposed for UK soldiers
US commanders draw up strategic plans for what they hope will be a final and conclusive push against Taliban-led insurgents

Indeed the Brits would seem prime candidates to send forces to replace us at Kandahar when the CF pull out in 2011--and the Dutch when they leave Uruzgan this year. After all there will be plenty of US Marines at Helmand.