Afstan: Is NATO fighting a war or not? Russian help/US supply routes

I guess it all depends on where one is. NATO's Secretary General does some Olympic skating towards the end of this interview with Spiegel Online (note that the interviewer does not bother to ask about the planned Canadian and Dutch withdrawals):

'We Will Stay in Afghanistan as Long as It Takes to Finish Our Job'

US President Barack Obama has recently announced a major troop buildup in Afghanistan and other NATO members will likewise be supplying more troops. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen spoke with SPIEGEL about the 'warlike' conditions in Afghanistan, how long NATO will stay and whether Russia might come to the alliance's aid.

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SPIEGEL: The displeasure among the populations of the NATO countries involved in the war is growing even more quickly than your commitment. About 70 percent of Germans favor a rapid withdrawal of their troops. How long can democratically governed nations wage a war opposed by a majority of their populations?

Rasmussen: I believe that people understand very well why we are in Afghanistan…

SPIEGEL: … and why, then, are they in favor of a rapid withdrawal?

Rasmussen: I believe that they understand that, with our troops, we must prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven and pullback area for terrorists. Otherwise, they could use it as a base from which to advance into Central Asia and further. In addition, they would continue to destabilize neighboring Pakistan, a nuclear power. All of this would be very, very dangerous, both for others and for us...

SPIEGEL: What exactly is our mission? Do we want to establish a Western-style democracy in Kabul, dig wells and make sure that girls can attend school? Or will we settle for protecting Europe and the United States against the al-Qaida terrorist organization?

Rasmussen: We are in Afghanistan to prevent the country from becoming a hotbed of terrorism once again. We should recall that the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 originated in Afghanistan, and that the inspiration for the attacks in Madrid and Istanbul also came from Afghanistan [admirably frank and focused, unlike our warm and fuzzy government].

SPIEGEL: The nature of the threat has changed. The New York Times quotes a former CIA officer as saying that there is no longer an al-Qaida in Afghanistan, nor are their any Afghans in al-Qaida. Instead, hasn't neighboring Pakistan become the terrorist center and our real problem?

Rasmussen: We are also concerned about Pakistan, and we cannot view our challenges in Afghanistan separately from the problems in Pakistan. For that reason, our new strategy is based on enhancing cooperation with Islamabad. However, the threat Afghanistan poses to us should not be downplayed. We know, for example, that the Taliban has harbored al-Qaida groups and have an ambition to take over Pakistan, a nuclear power. We would be taking a clear risk by withdrawing without having accomplished our mission first...

SPIEGEL: For now, even more soldiers are being sent to the front, including soldiers from Europe. General Karl-Heinz Lather, the German chief of staff at NATO military headquarters, says that two battalions are needed in the Kunduz region alone, one for combat missions. That could mean up to 2,000 men. What do you expect from Germany?

Rasmussen: I don't want to discuss concrete numbers before the international conference on Afghanistan in London on Jan. 28. However, a number of European governments have already pledged a total of 7,000 new troops in recent weeks. It's more than I expected, and I'm convinced that it will get even better than that.

SPIEGEL: The French are skeptical. And (German Chancellor) Angela Merkel has not held out the prospect of any concrete commitments yet. What makes you so confident that you will in fact get the soldiers you want from Berlin?

Rasmussen: I know very well that Berlin attaches great importance to NATO and solidarity, in terms of sharing the burden. For this reason, I feel confident that the German government will take the right decision, one that serves both German and NATO interests...

SPIEGEL: Just to be clear: Your response to this direct question is neither yes nor no. Are we conducting a war in Afghanistan, or what is it?

Rasmussen: It is quite clear that our troops are fighting under warlike conditions in certain areas of Afghanistan. But I think the rest of it is semantics.

SPIEGEL: You could end this debate by saying: "Yes, of course, we are at war there." Why do you not have the courage to say this?

Rasmussen: What I'm saying is that there are warlike conditions in some areas [emphasis added].

SPIEGEL: The new German defense minister uses the same language...

SPIEGEL: When exactly is the NATO mission completely fulfilled? What exactly are the criteria?

Rasmussen: The mission will be fulfilled when the Afghans are capable of governing their country and guaranteeing security. The more we invest in that transition now, the more likely this outcome becomes. This not an exit strategy, but a transition strategy. We will gradually turn over the country to Afghan control, district by district, province by province. And I believe we will be able to start that process by next year.

SPIEGEL: Perhaps the Russians will help you with that. You traveled to Moscow for three days on Tuesday. Did you discuss the issue?

Rasmussen: Yes. I see great potential for further Russian engagement in Afghanistan. Russia has already offered us a transit route for supplies. I could imagine more happening. The Russians could also participate in the training and providing equipment for the Afghan army...

More on Russian assistance, actual and possible, here, here and this:

...The U.S. and Russian governments are negotiating to open Russian airspace to charter and U.S. military flights supplying Afghanistan, McNabb said. The polar route over Russia would allow chartered jets to travel nonstop from Chicago to Afghanistan, and let Air Force transports take on cargo at Travis Air Force Base, Calif., and refuel in Alaska. Wounded troops could fly directly to U.S. bases instead of stopping at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, and the nearby Landstuhl Regional Medical Center.

It isn’t clear when the polar route will be cleared for regular missions, however, or how many flights will be allowed to use the route. So far, the Russian government has allowed only two C-17 Globemaster cargo flights to cross Russia, but [Air Force Gen. Duncan] McNabb [TRANSCOM commander] said he foresees hundreds of flights eventually using the route each year...

And more on US supply routes:

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About half the Afghan mission's supplies move by land through Pakistan, a third through northern routes -- including via Russia -- and 20 percent by air, McNabb said.

The military delivers all lethal and sensitive cargo by air as a precaution, but the cost of air shipments is about 10 times more than by land, he said.

US commanders were even considering using unmanned aircraft to deliver supplies to combat troops as well, which would reduce the cost of air dropping cargo, the general added.