"What If We Fail in Afghanistan?"/Strong horse update

Steve Coll of the New Yorker is right on the mark, in my view:

Last week, I found myself at yet another think tank-type meeting about Afghan policy choices. Toward the end, one of the participants, who had long experience in government, asked a deceptively simple question: What would happen if we failed?

First, the question requires a definition of failure. As I’ve argued, in my view, a purpose of American policy in Afghanistan ought to be to prevent a second coercive Taliban revolution in that country, not only because it would bring misery to Afghans (and, not incidentally, Afghan women) but because it would jeopardize American interests, such as our security against Al Qaeda’s ambitions and our (understandable) desire to see nuclear-armed Pakistan free itself from the threat of revolutionary Islamist insurgents. So, then, a definition of failure would be a redux of Taliban revolution in Afghanistan—a revolution that took control of traditional Taliban strongholds such as Kandahar and Khost, and that perhaps succeeded in Kabul as well. Such an outcome is conceivable if the Obama Administration does not discover the will and intelligence to craft a successful political-military strategy to prevent the Afghan Taliban from achieving its announced goals, which essentially involve the restoration of the Afghan state they presided over during the nineteen-nineties, which was formally known as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

What would be the consequences of a second Islamic Emirate? My scenarios here are intended analytically, as a first-draft straw-man forecast:

The Nineties Afghan Civil War on Steroids...

Momentum for a Taliban Revolution in Pakistan...

Increased Islamist Violence Against India, Increasing the Likelihood of Indo-Pakistani War...

Increased Al Qaeda Ambitions Against Britain and the United States [not to mention Canada]...

A previous post on Mr Coll:

How to deal with Afstan, AfPak, Indo/Pak, and al Qaeda/Update on strong horses

Strong horse update (from NATO's Danish Secretary General):

Nato chief: quick exit from Afghanistan will unleash 'global jihad'
Withdrawing from Afghanistan too quickly would allow al-Qaeda to return and launch a “global jihad” against the West, the head of Nato has warned.