Afstan: Big Marine component of second Obama surge/Update thoughts: But how many new forces overall and why Helmand first?

The US now has four Army ground brigades in the country with a primary combat role: the 4th Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, and 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, all in ISAF Regional Command East, plus the 5th Stryker Brigade Combat Team in Kandahar, RC South (that last BCT was part of the first Obama surge in February this year}.

Also in RC South is the, very large, 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade at Helmand (another part of the first Obama surge, details of its composition here).

It now looks very likely that 9,000 more Marines--a further expeditionary brigade--will be deployed to Helmand (the logical place for them) pretty soon as the first ground force element of the president's second surge to be announced Tuesday, Dec. 1:

Newly deployed Marines to target Taliban bastion

Days after President Obama outlines his new war strategy in a speech Tuesday, as many as 9,000 Marines will begin final preparations to deploy to southern Afghanistan and renew an assault on a Taliban stronghold that slowed this year amid a troop shortage and political pressure from the Afghan government, senior U.S. officials said.

The extra Marines will be the first to move into the country as part of Obama's escalation of the eight-year-old war. They will double the size of the U.S. force in the southern province of Helmand and will provide a critical test for Afghan President Hamid Karzai's struggling government and Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal's counterinsurgency strategy.

"The first troops out of the door are going to be Marines," Gen. James T. Conway, the Corps' top officer, told fellow Marines in Afghanistan on Saturday. "We've been leaning forward in anticipation of a decision. And we've got some pretty stiff fighting coming."

The Marines will be quickly followed by about 1,000 U.S. Army trainers. They will deploy as early as February to speed the growth of the Afghan army and police force, military officials said.

The new forces will not start moving until Obama outlines his new strategy in a speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y. The revised plan, which faces a war-weary and increasingly skeptical American public, is expected to call for 30,000 to 35,000 new troops in a phased deployment over the next 12 to 18 months.

The parceling-out of reinforcements is driven in part by Afghanistan's lack of infrastructure, which cannot immediately support a larger U.S. force. The phased approach will also allow the president to cancel some of the additional reinforcements if the counterinsurgency strategy advocated by McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, does not show results or if the Karzai government does not meet goals for stamping out corruption and providing for the Afghan people, White House officials said.

The first place Obama will look for results is Helmand, a Taliban-dominated province that has been McChrystal's primary focus for much of this year and has been the site of some of the bloodiest fighting. Earlier this year, about 10,000 Marines moved into the area and pushed Taliban fighters out of several major cities there. The Marines then began to rebuild the long-absent Afghan government and police forces in the area...

This post has more details on possible further units that may be sent (including perhaps a divisional headquarters in Kandahar at some point); posts here and here deal specifically with future deployments to Kandahar and implications for the CF.

By the way, when the Marines have some 20,000 troops in Afstan early next year, they alone will have more than twice as many forces there than the next largest foreign contingent, the Brits with some 9,000. Something to ponder.

And maybe the US, as Marine and then Army forces grow in the south, will need more than a divisional HQ: a corps HQ after the US takes command of RC South in November 2010?

Update thoughts: If, besides the Marines, President Obama plans to dispatch fewer than three Army BCTs with a combat focus (such a new overall commitment would amount to almost doubling current US ground combat strength) then I think it will be an indication that he is not really interested in making a success of Gen. McChrystal's COIN strategy. Take another look at this post, it's about a middle-ground choice. And listen closely on Tuesday.

Also, one wonders whether the evident immediate focus on Helmand (fairly soon it would seem there will be some 30,000 ISAF forces in the province, roughly double those now at Kandahar) reflects real and urgent COIN requirements--as opposed to just being the simplest thing to do first, Marines being "expeditionary"-organized and all that. 'Twould be a pity if Helmand were made better whilst the more important province, I should think, Kandahar got significantly worse.