US thinking furiously about Afstan

General Petraeus at Centcom is putting together a team of 100! Plus the idea of working with tribes. There sure is a lot of American reviewing going on.

1) Petraeus Mounts Strategy Review
Team to Focus On Afghanistan, Wider Region

Gen. David H. Petraeus has launched a major reassessment of U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and the surrounding region, while warning that the lack of development and the spiraling violence in Afghanistan will probably make it "the longest campaign of the long war."

The 100-day assessment will result in a new campaign plan for the Middle East and Central Asia, a region in which Petraeus will oversee the operations of more than 200,000 American troops as the new head of U.S. Central Command, beginning Oct. 31.

The review will formally begin next month, but experts and military officials involved said Petraeus is already focused on at least two major themes: government-led reconciliation of Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the leveraging of diplomatic and economic initiatives with nearby countries that are influential in the war.

The review comes as Petraeus, who led a counterinsurgency effort credited with drastically reducing attack levels in Iraq, faces widespread expectations that he will find a way to arrest escalating violence and U.S. troop casualties in Afghanistan, fueled by growing militant havens in Pakistan.

It also coincides with the Bush administration's own urgent reassessment of Afghanistan strategy amid pessimism that the situation there is rapidly deteriorating. Indeed, some senior administration officials have expressed concern that Petraeus is casting his net too widely with a regional review at a time when Afghanistan and western Pakistan desperately need rescuing...

Petraeus is recruiting a brain trust of advisers, much as he did for Iraq, taking the studious approach that has become the hallmark of the four-star general who holds a doctorate in international relations from Princeton University.

Petraeus's Joint Strategic Assessment Team -- led by a longtime adviser, Col. H.R. McMaster, and with the Central Command deputy, Maj. Gen. John Allen, as executive director -- is reaching out to handpicked experts as well as State Department, Pentagon and other civilian and military officials with experience in the region.

The team will comprise about 100 people [emphasis added], organized initially into six subregional teams, tasked with investigating the root causes of insecurity in the region with the goal of finding solutions that integrate military action, diplomacy and development work.

Afghanistan and Pakistan experts consulted so far include Shuja Nawaz, author of "Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within," whom Petraeus consulted during a private lunch in Washington last week, and Ahmed Rashid, author of "Descent into Chaos," a sobering look at Afghanistan that officials say Petraeus has read.

Reconciliation of moderate Taliban insurgents who are willing to ally with the Afghan government is emerging as one main thrust [emphasis added] of Petraeus's approach, according to officials and experts who have discussed it with him recently.

"In Afghanistan, or in any country where society is dominated by tribes, reconciliation really needs to be a focus," said a senior Central Command official.

Petraeus agreed but stressed that any outreach needs to be done in conjunction with the Afghan government [emphasis added]. "I do think you have to talk to enemies," he said at the Heritage Foundation. "Clearly you want to try to reconcile with as many as possible. . . . The key there is making sure all of that is done in complete coordination and with the complete support of the Afghan government and President [Hamid] Karzai."...

2) To fight Taliban, US eyes Afghan tribes
Some tribes have forced insurgents from their area, but many risks remain.

JALALABAD, AFGHANISTAN

With sticks, knives, and 600 men drawn from his own tribe, Hajji Malik Zahir did what the armies of Afghanistan and America could not: He drove the Taliban from his district.

Now, the United States increasingly wants to encourage other tribal elders in Afghanistan to do the same. In what is taking shape as a substantial policy shift, it wants to use tribes to bring law and order to the vast areas of the country beyond the government's authority.

The successful uprising of tribal chiefs in Iraq against Al Qaeda – the "Anbar Awakening" – has created momentum, as has endemic corruption in President Hamid Karzai's government.

The government is not competent enough to deal with the dire threats now facing Afghanistan, says Seth Jones, an analyst at the RAND Corp., a security consultancy in Arlington, Va., that works with the Pentagon. "This means working with the tribal leaders," he says.

Such a policy promises great risk and reward. Done carelessly, it could unleash the tribal and ethnic forces that led to civil war in the early 1990s, warns tribal leader Mr. Zahir, as well as analysts. Yet his experience – and that of aid agencies and local law-enforcement officials – suggests that tribal elders can often deliver results that the government alone cannot.

In a Pentagon briefing last week the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. David McKiernan, said: "It seems to me that, with the lead of the government of Afghanistan, engaging those tribes and connecting them to governance – whether it's at the provincial level or the district level – seems to be a smart thing to do to assist with the security of a huge country."

US fears reviving civil war

It has taken Washington seven years to get to this point, largely because of the tremendous dangers and complications inherent in such a policy.

As recently as the 1980s, America was arming and training local fighters in Afghanistan to drive out the Soviet Army. The result was four years of civil war after the Soviets withdrew, as the new warlords fought each other, killing thousands. The chaos led to the rise of the Taliban.

Moreover, Afghanistan is an enormously complex web of intersecting tribal and ethnic allegiances that must be negotiated with great delicacy. Bolstering one Pashtun tribe in eastern Afghanistan, for example, could upset Tajiks and Hazaras in the north – who feel that their old foes are being strengthened – as well as rival Pashtun clans in the south.

For this reason, a consensus is emerging here and in Washington that whatever program emerges must be run by the Afghan government itself – perhaps by the police or Army [emphasis added]...

Update: Petraeus certainly is an unusual general, casting a very wide net indeed:

Even before he takes command of U.S. military strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Gen. David Petraeus is reaching beyond the military sphere to encourage international support for stabilizing the region.

Petraeus, whose innovative thinking is credited with helping save Iraq from civil war, met International Monetary Fund and World Bank representatives [emphasis added] last week in preparation for new efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, officials said.

The move, unusual for a military commander, underscores the Pentagon's emphasis on unifying military, economic, political and diplomatic aid to help the two countries cope with militant violence and economic dislocation, officials said...

See also the Economist article Babbling links to in the "Comments".