Let's hope this doesn't fly

Airbus just won't give up pushing the A400M airlifter. And our journalists still do not report fully.

1) Daniel Leblanc in the Globe and Mail:

An aviation firm is offering Ottawa a deal that it says would cut $2-billion from the $4.9-billion federal plan to buy new transport aircraft for the military in the hopes that the government will scrap an upcoming contract with a rival.

Airbus Military says the $2-billion saving would allow the government to buy badly needed search-and-rescue planes.

"There are alternatives that not only meet the requirement [of the Canadian Forces] but can save the taxpayers money," Richard Thompson, Airbus Military's senior vice-president, said in an interview yesterday.

The Conservative government is scheduled to sign a contract with U.S.-based Lockheed-Martin this fall to buy 17 Hercules C-130J transport planes. The deal is designed to replace Canada's fleet of 32 Hercules C-130E and C-130H workhorses bought between 1960 and 1997.

But in a last-minute proposal, the European aircraft manufacturer has contacted all MPs on the defence committee of the House, saying Ottawa should keep its nine best Hercules C-130Hs and buy eight new Airbus A400M planes instead.

The total fleet of 17 planes would have greater capabilities than the Hercules C-130Js, according to Airbus. An A400M can carry a combat-ready LAV III, a light-armoured vehicle that doesn't fit on a Hercules.

Mr. Thompson said the combined fleet of old Hercules and new Airbus planes would cost $1.3-billion less than the current plan, with an extra $700-million in maintenance costs saved over the long term.

The A400M is not flying yet, but Airbus said it will be ready for delivery in late 2010, when the government is hoping to receive its first Hercules C-130J.

The savings associated with the Airbus plan, according to Mr. Thompson, could be spent to buy 15 new search-and-rescue aircraft, which the government [starting with the Liberals under Paul Martin - MC] long said was a priority but is now on the back burner. [Guess what? EADS, which owns Airbus, has its own dog in this hunt but Mr Leblanc doesn't mention that salient fact; neither does Mr Pugliese below - MC.]

"You could do all that within the budget that had been allocated for [the Hercules]," Mr. Thompson said.

Lockheed-Martin countered that the Hercules is a proven aircraft that can quickly go into service, while the A400M is still in production and the old fleet of Hercules is getting increasingly costly to maintain.

2) David Pugliese in the Ottawa Citizen (who at least provides rather more context, if limited, than Mr Leblanc):

On Thursday, officials with Europe's Airbus Military made a direct plea to the Commons defence committee, suggesting that Canada buy eight of its A400M transport planes and save $2 billion in the process. Part of that money could then be used to buy new search-and-rescue planes, according to the company.

The military's plan to buy much-needed search-and-rescue planes has been delayed at least four years because of a lack of money and the ongoing emphasis on purchasing equipment needed for Afghanistan, defence officials say.

Under the Airbus proposal, the Canadian Forces would use its existing newer model C-130 aircraft along with the A400M to handle shorter-range airlift.

"We think as long as a contract has not been signed with Lockheed Martin, we have the opportunity, and indeed the duty, to bring this (proposal) to the attention to the authorities and the Canadian public," said Richard Thompson, Airbus Military's vice-president.

Mr. Thompson said the company is ready to guarantee Canada delivery of the first aircraft in December 2010 [good luck, see below], and the remaining planes by February 2013. The A400M is scheduled to fly in the beginning of 2008 and first deliveries for NATO customers will start in 2009, according to Airbus officials.

But supporters of the C-130J say the A400M program has been delayed because of technical programs, and it is unclear when the aircraft will be available.

Mr. Thompson, however, said that is untrue. "Overall the program is on track," he said. "Like any program of this size and complexity there are elements of it which are slightly behind schedule, others which are slightly ahead of schedule."

Dan Ross, the Defence Department's assistant deputy minister for materiel, said he cannot comment on Airbus's claims about savings. But he noted the military needs the transport aircraft quickly, and although a contract has yet to be signed with Lockheed Martin, it is expected that the C-130J will be flying on operations with the air force by 2011.

"Once you're at contract you can negotiate delivery slots with other customers that would be earlier than 2010, maybe significantly earlier [emphasis added]," Mr. Ross said of the C-130J.

The government is currently in negotiations with Lockheed Martin to purchase 17 C-130Js. The government estimated it will spend $3.2 billion on the program. Another $1.7 billion will be set aside for a 20-year in-service support contract for the planes.

Mr. Ross also questioned whether an A400M delivered as early as 2010 would be trouble-free, as it takes years to work out the technical bugs in new planes. "Companies promise all kinds of stuff until they get a contract," he added [a very good point--see below].

The Commons defence committee, which is studying defence procurement, has also heard from some witnesses who have voiced concerns over the C-130J. In March the Pentagon's former director of equipment testing, Philip Coyle, told the Commons committee that the C-130J is still facing ongoing technical problems.

Some points about Mr Pugliese's article, which is rather economical with the truth:

a) "...supporters of the C-130J say the A400M program has been delayed because of technical programs..."

It's not just supporters, it is Airbus itself:

...There has been speculation that it was running into difficulties, and Airbus confirmed this for the first time yesterday [March 9].

The A400M, which will be larger than existing Hercules transporters, will be delayed by three months, and Airbus acknowledged that there would be “significant challenges until first delivery”, which is scheduled for next year. Costs have blown out on this project, too, and EADS took a provision of €352 million to cover the “risk and technical challenges” of developing the aircraft...

b) 'Mr. Thompson... said..."Overall the program is on track..."'

But Airbus itself seems not quite so certain:

...The next target is due in June with the start of final assembly of the first aircraft in Seville, which is the first flying version of the A400M. This is about three months later than originally planned but Martinez Saiz [Airbus Executive Vice President responsible for military programmes] sees the modification of the plan positively, because it ensures that the large components can be supplied "in good shape and really fully equipped", including the comprehensive test instrumentation. The aim is to avoid expensive reworking such as occurred with the A380.

"Our plan is still to be flying in January 2008," stated Martinez Saiz in an interview in mid-March. "But if its February that doesn't bother us too much". The crucial thing is to meet the delivery deadline at the end of 2009, and there's still over 30 months to go until then. "At any rate were doing everything we can to achieve this and I'm optimistic that we can keep to the deadline..."

Ya gotta put a lot of faith in that optimism.

c) "...first deliveries for NATO customers will start in 2009, according to Airbus officials..." Not the whole story: at the end of 2009 (if all goes well).

Then there's this, which Mr Pugliese does not mention. The A400M will have an all-new design turboprop engine, the most powerful Western turboprop ever, built by a consortium put together just for this engine. If its development and testing schedule is kept I will be truly amazed.

At present, flight tests are also being prepared with the new TP400D-6 engine for the A400M. The latest date for testing of a power plant on a C-130 Hercules is now July/August. "That still gives us enough time to verify the data gathered in ground test runs in flight as well," stated Juan Carlos Martinez Saiz reassuringly.

At the beginning of the year, though, there were reports from the Europrop partner companies (ITP, MTU, Rolls-Royce, Snecma) that testing on the test beds was running slightly behind schedule. For this reason two additional engines are to be included in the programme and an additional test bed put into operation. However, there was assurance that the specifications with regard to weight and fuel consumption would be fulfilled. "The tests to date have not revealed any increased vibration, so that does not appear to be a problem," Martinez Saiz also confirmed...

Then there's the fact that Airbus as a whole continues to have serious problems (see these stories at Spiegel Online); I cannot think they won't impede the A400M's progress.

A final example of Mr Pugliese's selectivity:

The Commons defence committee, which is studying defence procurement, has also heard from some witnesses who have voiced concerns over the C-130J. In March the Pentagon's former director of equipment testing, Philip Coyle, told the Commons committee that the C-130J is still facing ongoing technical problems.

Hardly the whole story. The plane is operational with the US Air Force; the Pentagon plans to buy 30 more of them for the USAF and USMC; and these countries have bought the C-130J:

186 C-130J and C-130J-30 aircraft have been ordered and over 136 delivered. Orders are : US Air Force, Air National Guard, Marine Corps and Coastguard (89 C-130J and C-130J-30 and 20 KC-130J tankers), UK (ten C-130J, 15 C-130J-30 all delivered), Italian Air Force (12 C-130J and ten C-130J-30 all delivered), Royal Australian Air Force (12 C-130J, all delivered), Kuwaiti Air Force (four C-130J-30) and the Danish Air Force (three C-130J-30 all delivered and one ordered in July 2004).

In April 2004, the US Marine Corps formally accepted the first KC-130J tanker / transport into service. The aircraft was first deployed in combat in April 2005 in Iraq...

And the interest just keeps growing:

* Norway is in talks with the U.S. regarding the purchase of four C-130J airlifters [AW&ST, April 30, text subscriber only]...

* United States has offered India a $1,059 million deal to sell six C-130J Hercules aircraft with associated equipment and services to provide it special operations airlift capability and ensure interoperability with American forces in coalition operations.

The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on Tuesday that it had notified Congress of India's request for the sale of six Lockheed Martin C-130J aircraft as required by US law...

But Mr Pugliese does not consider it worth reporting the wide success of the aircraft.

Airbus, for its part, lobbies relentlessly; also worth reporting in this context I would think.

Update: More on the engine (thanks to Fred in the "Comments"):

Ground testing of the TP400 has meanwhile now passed 400h, but remains significantly short of the 1,100h originally scheduled for this point in the programme...

My optimism is simply out of control.

Upperdate: Let's hope the US has good political sense:

Canada asks Pentagon for early delivery of new cargo planes

Maybe Norman Spector may be paying attention to The Torch; if so, good on him.